Tag Archives: democrats

Earmarks get ax from GOP senators

Washington (CNN) — The GOP caucus in the Senate agreed Tuesday night to ban earmarks, a policy House Republicans already have in place and are expected to keep in the new Congress.

The idea of prohibiting members from designating funding for specific projects in their states or districts is popular with reform-minded deficit hawks, but it has traditionally been opposed by some congressional veterans trying to steer funds to constituencies back home.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, a longtime defender of earmarks, announced Monday that he would vote for the ban.

“I’m not wild about turning over more spending authority to the executive branch, but I have come to share the view of most Americans that our nation is at a crossroads,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. The “only way we will be able to turn the corner and save our future is if elected leaders like me make the kinds of difficult decisions voters are clearly asking us to make.”

But McConnell also expressed his own personal conflict on the issue.

McConnell backs banning earmarks

“Make no mistake, I know the good that has come from the projects I have helped support throughout my state. I don’t apologize for them,” McConnell said. “But there is simply no doubt that the abuse of this practice has caused Americans to view it as a symbol of the wasted and the out-of-control spending that every Republican in Washington is determined to fight.”

President Barack Obama responded with a statement welcoming McConnell’s “decision to join me and members of both parties who support cracking down on wasteful earmark spending, which we can’t afford during these tough economic times.”

But the president added, “We can’t stop with earmarks as they represent only part of the problem.”

As Republicans voted in their caucus, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri said she wants the full Senate to vote on a binding moratorium that would include Democrats, too.

“The arguments against this, every single one of them, I just don’t think pass the smell test,” she said about senators who oppose a ban.

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, later indicated disagreement with McCaskill. Reid defended earmarks Tuesday, telling Capitol Hill reporters he has “an obligation to the people of Nevada … not to some bureaucrat with green eyeshades.”

“I think (an earmark ban is) a tremendous step backward,” Reid said. “It just gives more power to the executive. … I am not in favor of delegating my constitutional responsibility to the White House.”

Nevertheless, McCaskill’s push puts pressure on Senate Democrats, many of whom agree with Reid, to get behind a ban, which has taken on increased political significance in light of Tea Party gains in the midterm elections.

McCaskill is working with Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma on an earmark-ban amendment they might add to a food safety bill that’s expected to be on the floor later this week. She is working with Democratic leaders to schedule a vote.

The ban would come in the form of a change in Senate rules, an aide to Coburn explained. Senators would be allowed to raise points of order against bills with earmarks, which would be binding.

“If these things (earmarks) are so good, will someone tell me how they’re decided,” a spirited McCaskill asked reporters. “Little cards getting handed around in caucus. There is not an open process. Who decides who gets the most money and on what basis is that decided?”

McConnell, who unexpectedly lent his support to the ban, said in a speech this month to the Heritage Foundation that “you could eliminate every congressional earmark and you would save no money.”

That’s because earmarks don’t represent extra spending. They represent spending that lawmakers have already approved for federal agencies. And earmarks typically account for less than 1 percent of the budget.

For the earmark ban to reduce spending, “you have to lower the spending authorizations by the same amount,” said Maya MacGuineas, fiscal policy director at the New America Foundation.

It’s typically up to federal agencies to decide how their money gets allocated to projects in states, cities and counties, and those decisions are made through an application-and-review process, except when earmarks are involved.

Definitions of earmarks vary widely, and agencies catalog them differently. But typically an earmark is defined as a slice of agency money that a lawmaker or the president requests be set aside for a specific project.

So earmarks are not subject to the same review process, and they are often slipped into unrelated spending bills at the last minute without most people’s knowledge.

The notion that earmarks are wasteful bridges to nowhere is misleading.

Residents of a state or city may not view federal dollars earmarked to help them improve their transit system as a waste.

The problem is that the earmark system is based on “political muscle rather than merit,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan spending watchdog group.

The earmark issue is one of several the lame-duck session of the Democratic Congress is expected to tackle.

The session convened Monday, with members preparing to make decisions on a host of contentious issues that could have major political ramifications for Obama and the incoming Republican House majority.

At the top of the agenda: whether to extend the Bush tax cuts for families making more than $250,000 a year. Republicans contend that failure to extend the cuts for everyone would be a mistake in a weak economy. Obama considers such a move a roughly $700 billion budget-busting mistake, but he recently suggested he’s willing to compromise.

If Congress fails to act, all the cuts will expire at the end of the year.

In addition to the tax cuts, the lame-duck Congress also has to consider expiring cuts in the estate tax and decide what to do about a bill that is keeping the government running but is set to expire December 3.

Other items on the agenda include:

– A possible repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy barring gays and lesbians from serving openly in the armed forces.

– Ratification of the nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.

– A child nutrition bill backed by first lady Michelle Obama.

– The Dream Act, which would create a path to citizenship for young illegal immigrants if they attend college or serve in the military.

CNN’s Alan Silverleib, Dana Bash, Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Earmarks get ax from GOP senators

Deal ends Democratic leadership battle

(CNN) — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has struck a deal that ends the leadership fight for the number two slot in the new House minority, multiple senior Democratic sources tell CNN.

Under the compromise, current House majority leader Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer will become the Democratic whip, which will be the number two spot in the new Democratic minority.

South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn agreed to end his bid for that spot and instead hold a new, third-ranking leadership post that will be created for him. In a letter to Democratic colleagues on Saturday, Pelosi said she plans to designate him “Assistant Leader.”

In a statement Saturday, Clyburn — an African-American — said it was important that the party’s House leadership represented “the diverse views, backgrounds and experiences of our membership.” The new structure, he said, “honors the diversity and fosters the unity” of House Democrats.

“I believe this resolution allows us to begin the journey back to a stronger and more resilient majority,” said Clyburn, the current majority whip and a congressman since 1993.

When the Democrats become the minority party in the House they lose the position of Speaker, a shift that left Hoyer and Clyburn jockeying for the House minority whip position.

Hoyer also released a statement Saturday, saying he would look forward to serving as the Democratic whip.

“Since the election last week, I have made clear my belief that it was important for my friend Jim Clyburn to continue serving our Caucus as the third ranking Member of our Leadership,” he said.

The deal allows Rep. John Larson of Connecticut to keep his post as Democratic caucus chairman and Rep. Xavier Becerra to remain as the vice chair of the Democratic caucus.

Speaker Pelosi revealed the deal in a somewhat cryptic statement late Friday night.

“Should I receive the honor of serving as House Democratic Leader, I will nominate Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina to the number three leadership position,” Pelosi said.

Deal ends Democratic leadership battle

Divided Dems look ahead through 2012

Washington (CNN) — One week removed from the great “shellacking” of 2010, Democrats at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are still picking through the ashes of their lost House majority and debating the best way forward.

Rumors of their demise are, of course, exaggerated. Republicans survived midterm massacres in 1974 and 2006; Democrats lived to tell the tale of 1994. Election night exit polls showed the GOP is no more popular among voters than the Democrats.

But any time a party loses at least 60 seats in the House and six in the Senate, recriminations are bound to fly. Angry liberals accuse the White House of selling them out on a range of issues — public option anyone? — and demoralizing the base. Diminished Blue Dogs point the finger at Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s dismal approval ratings and complain about being saddled with unpopular stimulus and cap-and-trade plans, among other things.

Adding to moderate malaise: Pelosi’s unexpected decision to seek another term as her party’s House leader. The San Francisco speaker has been holed up in her Capitol Hill office this week, working the phones to stave off any possible challenge.

Her decision means more moderate Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer and more liberal South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn — numbers two and three in the current House Democratic leadership — are left fighting over the position of minority whip for the next Congress.

Some observers warn the Congressional Black Caucus will explode if Clyburn — a veteran African-American legislator — doesn’t get the nod.

What does all of this mean? Maybe President Barack Obama picked a good time to pack his bags for Asia. But he can’t avoid a radically changed landscape for the next two years as he pursues a second term.

Obama may have to further distance himself from House Democrats than Bill Clinton did after Republicans won control of Congress in 1994, Brown University political scientist Wendy Schiller told CNN.

“He’s going to have to sell the liberal wing of the Democratic Party down the river in order to get reelected,” she predicted, specifically citing negotiations over an extension of the Bush tax cuts.

Faced with a more uniformly liberal Democratic caucus led by Pelosi, Obama’s got to “become a solo operator,” Schiller said. He has “to step outside of the party box” and “reintroduce himself to the American public.”

But Nathan Gonzales, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, warned Obama will rarely attract enough support from the Tea Party-influenced GOP to compensate for the loss of liberal support if he tries too much to position himself as an independent operator.

“The best thing for Obama is to get his party on the same page,” Gonzales said. Republicans who may be inclined to strike a deal “are going to face a lot of pressure to resist working with the Democrats.” To most conservative activists, “that’s viewed as unacceptable. The moment you work with the Democrats, you’re at risk of a primary challenge. That’s a real threat.”

Gonzales cited the example of moderate Maine GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe, who is up for reelection in 2012. The New England Republican has been a favorite of the administration and congressional Democrats looking for bipartisan cover, but is now facing a rising Tea Party threat in her backyard. Her home state, a moderate bastion in recent decades, just elected a sharply conservative Republican governor.

It’s an open question how much politicians such as Snowe will be available to work with Democrats over the next two years.

Schiller and Gonzales differed over the impact of Pelosi staying on as the House Democratic leader.

“The president’s still the president. He’s still the leader of the Democratic Party,” Gonzales said. “In the midterms, Pelosi was more of an issue because the president wasn’t on the ballot. But 2012 is going to be about Obama and the direction he’s taking the country.”

Keeping Pelosi as the top House Democrat “means no change and Democrats can’t afford that message,” Schiller said, largely echoing the views of jubilant Republicans after the speaker announced her intentions last Friday.

Schiller also claimed Democrats may be making a mistake if they dump Clyburn from the party’s leadership.

“Hoyer can present a moderate face, but it’s unclear that he brings any change because he’s been so visible” over the past four years, she argued. He’s “indistinguishable from Nancy Pelosi to the average voter.”

Clyburn, she contended, is “a smart strategic choice. He’s a real southerner. Also, because he’s African-American he may insulate the party from the most vitriolic race-based attacks from very conservative Republicans.”

The “Democratic and Republican moderate voting base is the holy grail for 2012, and they won’t react well to any attack on Clyburn that smacks of racism,” she contended.

Hoyer’s camp, however, asserts he is successfully convincing other House Democrats he is more of a unifying force than Clyburn. At the moment, Hoyer also has more public endorsements than Clyburn. A letter released late Sunday included the names of 30 House Democrats reflecting a broad cross-section of the Democratic caucus.

Sources close to both Hoyer and Clyburn have each told CNN their candidate will prevail. Other Democrats, meanwhile, are convinced both Hoyer and Clyburn will ultimately remain part of the leadership, with one of them taking the number-three slot of Democratic caucus chairman.

Stay tuned.

Divided Dems look ahead through 2012

GOP walks budget-cutting line with seniors

Washington (CNN) — Republicans rode a tidal wave of senior support into control of the House, promising to cut government spending and restore fiscal sanity to Washington.

But can they deliver on that promise without cutting entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security and angering older voters?

Seniors voted last week by an almost 60-40 split for Republican House candidates, after splitting evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 midterms. And voters 65 and older made up 24 percent of those casting votes last week.

Read more about exit polling on seniors

Check out exit polls from the 2006 midterm elections

Republicans, who will control the House in the next Congress, have vowed to cut spending in the federal budget, and entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare make up more than half of the budget. Significant cuts can’t happen without addressing these programs.

Changing those programs will be nearly impossible, with advocacy powers like AARP and other seniors’ groups resisting change.

The Arena: How to fix the economy

Perry: Let states decide Social Security

GOP strategist Ron Bonjean found that out when fellow Republicans, notably President George W. Bush, pushed a plan in 2005 to privatize Social Security and implemented changes to Medicare.

The reason Social Security reform failed was because “Americans were not fully educated in what the systemic problems were,” said Bonjean, the former chief of staff to the Senate Republican conference and director of communications for then-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

“Seniors seriously objected to any attempt to change it,” he added.

And seniors resisted change again this year, opposing health care reform, polls showed. Republicans hammered the Obama administration and congressional Democrats on their health care reform law and have vowed to repeal it.

It was a message that caught on with seniors, political analyst Jennifer Donahue said.

“Health care reform played a large factor. … The Obama administration appears to have gone too far too fast on health care, and especially in the minds of older voters, who already have government health care available to them.”

She added that one reason seniors favored Republicans this cycle was because of the endless attack ads on the new law.

Statistics show that anti-health care reform advocates spent $94 million on ads nationwide this year, while the other side spent $19 million.

While repealing the health care reform law will be next to impossible, the sensitive subject is one that may keep seniors wary of Democrats, Donahue added.

Will the GOP take on entitlements?

In the meantime, don’t expect Republican leaders to start changing or slashing entitlements right away, Bonjean said.

“I don’t see it as a top priority for Republicans going into the next Congress,” he said. “I think they’ll start creating a conversation, which needs to be had. Before you try to solve a problem, it will be important for Americans to understand what the problems are.”

Their primary focus will be on the economy and “low-hanging fruit” items in the budget that can be cut.

“Republicans are going to focus on growing the economy, creating jobs, repealing the health care law and cutting nondiscretionary spending. They may look at waste, fraud and abuse within the Medicare program, but their No. 1 priority is to jump-start the economy and repeal the new health care law,” Bonjean said.

Donahue added that even if Republicans float the idea of cutting entitlement programs, they have political cover.

“I think the Republicans have a little bit of cover because they know that a [Democratic] Senate and President Obama won’t cut Medicare,” she said. “So they can try to cut it and fail and that’s their safety net.”

Eventually, though, Congress will need to tackle the growing problems with these programs, which are pressing on the country’s fiscal health.

Bonjean hinted that entitlement change won’t come until the problems get really bad. Americans don’t like to deal with problems, he said, until they are “front and center and almost in a crisis level — like the economic situation we’re in right now.”

“When Medicare and Social Security get to such a point where it will be unsustainable, I think that’s when Americans will force Congress to do something about,” he added. “That’s the way the country works.”

What can Democrats do?

“To try and attract seniors is actually to make movement towards the center,” Donahue said. “And that is a dilemma for the Democrats right now because in order to attract younger voters, they actually have to move to the left.”

Democrats in recent history have had a hard time attracting seniors, so it comes as no surprise that they would face an uphill battle in this year’s election.

“Seniors have been a problem for the Democrats for at least a decade,” CNN polling director Keating Holland said. “Seniors routinely voted Democratic in House elections in the 1970s and 1980s, but starting in 1994 they trended toward the GOP and except for 2000, that trend has held up ever since. So there is some long-term pattern going on — it’s not a recent development.”

And it was certainly seen in the 2008 presidential election, when Barack Obama lost the senior vote to Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Obama was put over the top by support from independents, younger voters and baby boomers.

“For Democrats to have succeeded with older voters this cycle, they would have really had to court them,” Donahue said. “They didn’t do that. Where Republicans I think had the most energy and seemed like the most effective agent of change this cycle.”

CNN’s Rebecca Sinderbrand and Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

GOP walks budget-cutting line with seniors

Journalists talk about Olbermann suspension

(CNN) — The controversy surrounding MSNBC’s suspension of prime-time host Keith Olbermann had journalists chiming in with opinions Sunday as the issue took center stage on CNN’s “Reliable Sources.”

MSNBC announced Friday that Olbermann has been suspended indefinitely for violating the ethics policies of his employer earlier this year when he donated to three Democrats seeking federal office.

“I think he should be suspended, but…first of all, the policy may or may not be smart,” Matt Lewis, political analyst for PoliticsDaily.com, told “Reliable Sources” host Howard Kurtz.. “It may be that if you host an evening show, and you obviously have a point of view, as Olbermann does, that you should be exempted from the policy, that’s something to look at.”

Joan Walsh, editor in chief of Salon.com, took more a big-picture look at the Olbermann controversy and suggested it may be a case of media overkill.

“This story is part of the reason why people don’t like the media,” said Walsh. “We’re sitting here naval-gazing about this very wealthy man, respected by many of us, reviled by others, who is going to be fine whatever happens, while people across the country are getting thrown out of their jobs.”

Olbermann’s show, “Countdown,” has been a staple of MSNBC’s prime-time programming, and It has some of the highest ratings on the network.

New York Times media writer David Carr talked about the resiliency of both Olbermann and his show in the long run.

“I don think anybody who watches him would be stunned that he put his money where his mouth is,” said Carr. “In terms of, did he injure his relationship with his viewers? I really doubt it.”

Host Kurtz took time at the end of “Reliable Sources” to talk about the man responsible for Olbermann’s suspension.

“MSNBC President Phil Griffin stepped up to the plate by suspending his star, rather than letting him off with a slap on the wrist,” said Kurtz.

In what was apparently his first public comment since his suspension was announced, Olbermann wrote Sunday on his Twitter page: “Greetings From Exile! A quick, overwhelmed, stunned THANK YOU for support that feels like a global hug & obviously left me tweetless XO.”

Journalists talk about Olbermann suspension

Obama: Let’s move forward

Washington (CNN) — President Obama has invited the leaders of the Republicans and Democrats in both houses of Congress to join him in a meeting to discuss what to do in the waning days of this Congress’s term, vowing it will “not be just a photo-op,” he said Thursday.

“I want us to talk substantively about how to move the American people’s agenda forward,” he said.

Obama wants to discuss the future of the Bush-era tax cuts, he said. They’re due to expire at the end of the year, and Republicans and Democrats disagree about whether — or how — to extend them.

“We have to act in order to assure that middle-class families don’t see a big tax spike because of how the Bush tax cuts have been structured,” Obama said. “It is very important that we extend those middle-class tax cuts.”

Obama wants to let the tax cuts expire on the wealthiest Americans, while most Republicans do not want to single out the rich for different treatment.

The president said businesses also needed “certainty” about the future.

The meeting is set for November 18, he said.

It follows elections Tuesday in which Obama’s Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives and lost seats in the Senate. Current members of Congress keep their jobs until the end of the year, in what’s known as the “lame-duck” session.

Obama conceded Wednesday that his party had taken a “shellacking” from the voters.

The Republican leader in the Senate has already signaled that he’s more interested in rolling back what Obama has already done than in helping him push his agenda forward.

“For the past two years, Democrat lawmakers chose to ignore the American people, so on Tuesday the American people chose new lawmakers,” Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, is set to say in an address Thursday to the Heritage Foundation, according to excerpts from his office.

“The White House has a choice: they can change course, or they can double down on a vision of government that the American people have roundly rejected,” he says.

But Obama used his brief statement after a Cabinet meeting to highlight his priorities.

He urged the lame-duck Congress not to drop the ball on an arms control agreement with Russia, saying it is neither a Republican nor a Democratic issue.

“We have negotiated with the Russians significant reductions in our nuclear arms” in the new START treaty, he said.

That has given the United States leverage over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, he argued, because “people have seen that we are serious about taking our responsibilities when it comes to non-proliferation.”

The Senate must approve international treaties for them to take effect.

Obama is also planning to meet newly elected governors from both parties, he said. He’s invited them to the White House on December 2.

The meeting will be a “terrific opportunity to hear from them … about what they’re seeing, what ideas they think Washington needs to be paying attention to. They’ve got very practical problems that they’ve got to solve,” he said, praising their “common-sense approach that the American people are looking for right now.”

Obama: Let’s move forward

Campaign circus: 12 months of GOP hunks

Washington (CNN) — As Election Day gets closer, the rhetoric gets more intense, interesting and, shall we say, passionate. Here are some things you might have missed.

It’s certainly not the FDNY calendar

Vanity Fair magazine has unveiled “Red Meat,” its official 2010-11 Republican Beefcake Calendar — House Minority Leader John Boehner in a Speedo-style bathing suit is a must see.

Whoopsie

The White House recently sent out a press release with a glaring error. The press shop misspelled first lady Michelle Obama’s name. On Wednesday, they sent a corrected press release to reporters.

This isn’t amateur night at The Apollo

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman was booed by an audience Tuesday night at a debate when she declined to end negative ads. Her opponent, Democrat Jerry Brown, accepted the challenge.

Here’s Johnny

“Daily Show” host Jon Stewart lambasted Republicans on his show Tuesday night for saying Washington is broken and needs “change,” without laying out specifics on how they will fix it.

He was especially tough on Sen. John McCain — using sound bytes of the Arizona Republican saying that the system is broken. “John McCain has always worked here and always will and he is the caretaker from ‘The Shining,’ ” said Stewart.

Move over, Zagat Guide

Former President Clinton, perhaps the most sought-after campaigner this year, is also the most sought-after diner. Restaurants around the world are using his visits to attract customers — and it’s working. A tip here: You might want to call ahead for the “Clinton Table” at the Bukhara restaurant in New Delhi, India.

A scary day for Democrats

“Tonight Show” host Jay Leno used Halloween to take a shot at Democrats, saying: “Of course this Sunday is Halloween — the scariest day of the year. Unless you’re Democrat and that’s next Tuesday that would be the scariest day of the year.”

I want a best friend

The New York Post reports that White House senior adviser David Axelrod is in the market for a dog and has been “begging his wife for a dog” since coming to Washington. The only problem? His wife, according to the paper, says he has to wait until he moves back home to Illinois.

Picture of the day: Her very own ‘Mini-Me’

Former first lady Laura Bush has something to cheer about in this picture from Getty Images: She received her bobble-head doll during California first lady Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference on Tuesday.

Campaign circus: 12 months of GOP hunks

Where are Bush, Cheney as election nears?

Washington (CNN) — Dick Cheney is certainly not one to hold back on how he really feels. George W. Bush, on the other hand, has been mum.

Despite their differing approaches to handling the post-White House years, their absence on the campaign trail has been obvious.

“The former president has been very quiet since leaving the White House in 2008, other than appearances related to fundraising and the establishment of his presidential library,” said political analyst Bill Crane. “The vice president has primarily been visible on issues such as national defense and has traditionally not been the strongest fundraising draw.”

Cheney also has been dealing with health troubles — undergoing heart surgery in July and spending the bulk of his time since then recovering.

But that is not stopping him. The 69-year-old soon will embark on a 10-stop speaking tour this year, with additional plans next year when his memoirs are slated to come out.

While conservatives adore the former vice president, they understand that he is a polarizing figure, especially to independents, a vital voting bloc in any election.

“Conservatives would love to see Dick Cheney be more vocal,” said S.E. Cupp, a conservative blogger and co-author of the book “Why You’re Wrong about the Right.” “But at the same time, he’s not an idiot and neither are conservatives. He realizes that while that might energize the conservative base, that might not win over many independents who have a very bitter taste in their mouth from the Bush administration.”

And it shows in the polls.

A USA Today/Gallup Poll in early September found that 71 percent said Bush should get blame for the country’s economic troubles. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll taken at the same time indicated that 53 percent blamed Bush and Republicans for causing the current economic conditions, while 33 percent blamed President Obama and Democrats.

Those numbers may be why Tea Party-backed candidates such as Republican Sharron Angle and Ken Buck have made a name for themselves and are neck and neck in the polls against their Democratic opponents. They tout themselves as outside the Washington fray.

Washington insiders such as House Minority Leader John Boehner and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele are likely seen as a part of the problem to voters disenchanted with Washington.

“There’s a reason why so many of these conservative candidates are not going to John Boehner to help them to campaign,” Cupp said. “They kind of want to do it on their own to have at least an appearance of being grass-roots and unaffiliated.”

Democratic strategist Mark Siegel, who served under former President Carter, said Bush’s presence on the campaign trail would hurt the GOP candidates’ message that they would govern differently than the previous administration.

“Democrats have been saying over and over again that if you elect these new Republicans we’re just going to go back to the way things were,” he said.

Crane argues that Bush’s absence has more to do with respect.

“President Bush’s father took a similar approach during the Clinton years,” Crane said. “Having spent some time around the family … this is more about their respect for the office … as opposed to ‘fear’ by GOP challengers and incumbents about being connected with Bush, in my humble opinion.”

But Bush soon will appear from his so-called hiding when his book “Decision Points” is released on November 9. He is expected to give exclusive interviews and make appearances — after the November 2 election.

The ex-president has released a YouTube video previewing his upcoming book. In the video, Bush says he decided to take an “untraditional approach” to his memoir, forgoing an “exhaustive, chronological account of my life and years in office.”

CNN Political Ticker: Bush on ‘What I got right, what I got wrong’

Cupp said that Bush’s media blitz after the election is most likely due to his own political savvy.

“I don’t think he wants anyone to be able to say, ‘If Bush just hadn’t had said that or done that or gone there, maybe I could have won,’ ” she said. “It’s self-protection for one. I think he wants to stay out of the headlines for a bit.”

She added that this understanding of the political climate right now may be behind his decision to stay out of the spotlight.

And that is something Democrats have seized on.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden repeatedly have invoked Bush’s name on the campaign trail — talking points that more than likely originated from a poll this summer by the Benenson Strategy Group, the president’s chief polling firm, for Third Way, a moderate think tank.

Conducted June 19-22 of 1,100 likely voters, the poll found that Bush’s economic principles are “almost universally rejected” by a large margin — and merely bringing up the former president’s name causes a swing in attitudes.

When respondents were asked whether they would prefer a candidate who “will stick with President Barack Obama’s economic policies” or “one who will return to President George W. Bush’s economic policies,” the result was a 15-point advantage for the Obama approach.

Read more about Democrats’ Bush bashing

But a lot has changed since then.

According to CNN/Opinion Research poll in October, Americans are divided over whether Obama or Bush performed better in the White House.

By 47 percent to 45 percent, Americans say Obama is a better president than Bush. But that margin is down from a 23-point advantage a year ago.

“Democrats may want to think twice about bringing up former President George W. Bush’s name while campaigning this year,” said Keating Holland, CNN’s polling director.

Many moderate Democrats in hard-fought battles this year are shying away from being seen with the president — but are putting out the welcome mat for another one: Bill Clinton.

He has stumped in conservative areas for Blue Dog Democrats and is a real asset for Democrats across the board, Siegel said.

“Bill Clinton is not governing now. And when you think back to his presidency, at least economically, you think about a booming economy and surpluses, fiscally responsible,” he said. “I could see how he would be a tremendous plus. Bubba in the South — very, very popular culturally … popular among the people who are going to be determining the fate of a lot of Blue Dog Democrats.”

Where are Bush, Cheney as election nears?

Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst

Washington (CNN) — It has been said over and over again: The 2010 midterms is the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and by virtue of their position in power, the anti-Democratic election.

A sputtering economy, 9.6 percent national unemployment rate, housing crisis and little hope for a quick turnaround on the jobs front has forced Democrats on the defense heading into November.

OK, that is an understatement.

Democrats are under siege all across the country and are in deep danger of losing control of the House and if a massive wave develops on November 2, perhaps even the Senate.

Fueled by a huge fundraising effort by the Republican Governors Association, the GOP is also in position to reclaim more than a half dozen governorships including in states that President Obama easily won in 2008 such as Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Polls offers data that shows Democrats running for Senate seats in four key states are in dire straits and a president with little juice to help propel them to victory.

Video: Candidates go silent

Video: Can write-in win Senate seat?

Video: Strickland, Kasich on Ohio race

In all four of these states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio, Obama’s job approval rating ranges from a low of 33 percent (Arkansas) to a high of 42 percent (Ohio). The anti-Washington, thus anti-Democratic, theme shines like a bright neon sign in each of these races.

And the GOP’s rubber stamp argument seems to be resonating with voters, whether it is true or not: Sending, say, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln back to Washington means she will be a rubber stamp for Obama. Lincoln, who stuck to her centrist views and beat back a strong primary challenge from her political left earlier this year, is trailing her GOP opponent, Rep. John Boozman, by 14 points.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher is down 15 points to Republican Rob Portman. And in Florida, GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has a 26 point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three way race that also features Charlie Crist. Crist is running an independent bid for the Senate seat and trails Rubio by 14 points.

(The National Republican Senatorial Committee is also making the claim to West Virginia voters that the popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama if elected to the Senate).

But the Democrats running for governor in three of four of these states surveyed by CNN/Time/OPR shows that these candidates are either competitive or leading in their individual races. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe has a 27-point lead over his GOP rival Jim Keet; Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is up one point over Republican opponent John Kasich; and in the race for Florida governor, Democrat Alex Sink trails Republican Rick Scott by three points, which is within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

So, I think it is fair to say — outside of Alaska — that Democratic incumbents and candidates in these three states are not being stuck in the same category as their Democratic counterparts running for Senate. That is not to say the national mood is not having a negative affect on these Democrats, it just hasn’t been devastating.

As for the CNN/Time/OPR Poll, I dug a little deeper into the survey and found these interesting data points:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski obviously faces a difficult challenge in having her supporters correctly write-in her name on the ballot on November 2. The poll shows that Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller are tied at 37 percent, with Democratic nominee Scott McAdams registering support at 23 percent. But when respondents were asked if they might choose another candidate if they think the write-in procedure is too complicated, 3 percent answered yes. So, take that 3 percent away from Murkowski’s 37 percent and all of a sudden Miller is up three points. Murkowski is still within in the margin of error, but as CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted “in a tight race, this might be the difference between winning and losing.”

Murkowski’s greatest support comes from Anchorage and the Panhandle, while Miller wins Fairbanks and the Anchorage area when you expand it beyond the city limits.

Arkansas: How troubling is this for Democrat Blanche Lincoln? She is losing the woman vote to Republican John Boozman by eight points. She performs strongest in the east, while Boozman wins every other region of the state.

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is winning independents by four points over Charlie Crist, who is running an independent bid. Rubio’s lead is within the 6 percent margin of error. Rubio is also winning every corner of the state except southern Florida/Miami area where Crist holds a modest lead over the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In the governor’s race, Democrat Alex Sink is losing every region to Republican Rick Scott, but is crushing him in the southern Florida/Miami area. Sink, too, has soft support with women. She leads Scott by five points with women voters, but that is within the 5 percent margin of error for that specific question.

Ohio: In the Senate contest, Democrat Lee Fisher is losing to Republican Rob Portman among men and woman and in every age category. Geographically, Fisher leads Portman in the Cleveland area by eight points, but that is within the 8.5 percent margin of error. Portman is winning in every other part of the state. As for the competitive governor’s race, Ted Strickland is winning women, while John Kasich wins men. Strickland has a 15-point lead over Kasich with voters who earn less than $50,000, while Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with voters who earn more than $50,000. Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with independents. As for geographic regions, Strickland is leading in the Cleveland area and the central part of the state (the latter is within the margin of error), while Kasich is carrying Cincinnati/Dayton and has a slight lead in Columbus. In the industrial north, the two candidates are dead even.

Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst

Is Russ Feingold finished?

Milwaukee, Wisconsin (CNN) — It doesn’t get more outside the Beltway than Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson.

“I’d never been to Washington D.C…. until this election. I’ve gone three times just to familiarize myself and meet with some groups. But that’s it,” Johnson said.

A millionaire businessman running in his first election, Johnson is favored to take down three-term Democrat Russ Feingold. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released this week shows Johnson with an eight point lead.

Don’t tell that to Feingold. At a fundraiser headlined by first lady Michelle Obama on Wednesday, Feingold boasted, “As of this moment I am no longer behind.” A Feingold campaign spokesman told CNN its own internal polling shows the race is much tighter.

In an interview with CNN, Feingold brushed off the latest polls. “See Washington always has to catch up with the reality on the ground in Wisconsin,” Feingold said.

Johnson owes much of his quick political success to the Tea Party. He picked up the support of the conservative movement earlier this year with fiery speeches at Tea Party rallies. “America needs to be pulled back from the brink of socialism and state control,” Johnson told a Tea Party crowd in Madison, Wisconsin, last May.

An unabashed conservative who runs a medical packaging company in Oshkosh, Johnson’s outrage over health care reform led him to run for the Senate. “I view that as the single greatest assault on our freedom in our lifetime,” Johnson said.

Johnson’s positions are straight out of the Tea Party movement: repeal health care reform, cut taxes, shrink government and oppose climate change legislation. “It’s unsettled science,” Johnson says of humanity’s effect on global warming.

Feingold has surprised many of his fellow Wisconsin liberals by making his own appeal for Tea Party votes.

“He’s for the Patriot Act. I’m the only guy who voted against the Patriot Act. He’s for these trade deals that shipped Wisconsin jobs overseas. I’m against them,” Feingold said. “I agree with (Tea Party voters) on many key issues.”

But Feingold voted in favor of health care reform. He’s one of the few Democrats running an ad touting his vote. “That’s something (Tea Party voters) don’t like,” Feingold said. “But you know why? Because they weren’t told the truth about what’s in it.”

An architect of campaign finance reform, Feingold is being hammered by outside special interest groups running TV ads and billboards opposing his campaign. Johnson is also spending millions of his own fortune on his bid.

“I gotta tell you the history of my races. Every time some super rich guy goes, ‘hey Feingold looks like easy pickins,’ but they haven’t gotten me yet. And they’re not gonna get me this time,” Feingold said.

It’s not clear whether the bombardment of campaign messaging is resonating with Wisconsin voters who worry about the economy.

James Farrell, a co-owner of a brick masonry company and a Johnson supporter, says his business has suffered in the recession.

“It’s hard to be in business anymore, and something’s gotta change or a lot of people won’t be in business,” Farrell said.

Johnson says his experience in running a manufacturing business is exactly what Washington needs.

“I’m just a guy from Oshkosh,” Johnson said.

Is Russ Feingold finished?