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Will Congress settle differences or scores?

Posted on November 15, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

(CNN) — The Democratic-led Congress that was knocked on its heels by voters November 2 returns for a post-election, lame-duck session Monday with a long list of controversial bills Democrats would like to clear before January when Republicans take control of the House of Representatives and bulk up their numbers in the Senate.

Whether they can pass any of these measures, which include funding the government and extending Bush-era tax cuts, is an open question. If they can’t, the bills will die or be punted over to the new Congress

At this point, congressional Democrats, who are still licking their wounds and assessing the fallout from Election Day, are split on key policies, and they’re not ready to begin negotiations with Republicans.

“We have a whole bunch of people who want to talk about what happened,” said a top Senate Democratic leadership aide who said those discussions will begin in earnest Tuesday when Senate Democrats gather for their weekly policy lunch. “Folks want to have a chance to assess where we are and where we’re going” before settling on the nettlesome details of tax and spending levels.

Meanwhile, a senior Senate Republican leadership aide predicted “only the bare minimum” will get passed in the lame-duck session. Republicans, the aide said, will be content to wait for Democrats to sort out what they want to do. After all, the GOP will have more control over any of the issues that are held over to the new Congress.

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More clarity, particularly on the issue of taxes, could come Thursday when President Obama plans to meet with bipartisan congressional leaders at the White House. Obama, who has long opposed extending the lower Bush tax rates for wealthier Americans, suggested recently that he’s open to compromises on extending, at least temporarily, the tax rates for all Americans regardless of their income level.

For more on the battles ahead, check out CNN’s White House blog, The 1600 Report

New members/same leaders

While Congress has many legislative priorities for the lame-duck session, much of the focus will be on planning for the new Congress.

Beginning Monday, Capitol Hill will be flooded by an especially large class of newly elected members of the House and Senate. Many of them won with support from the Tea Party, which is pushing for dramatic change in the Washington’s priorities, especially when it comes to tackling debt and the deficit.

But before those new lawmakers can change Washington, they must sit through an extensive weeklong orientation that will teach them the arcane and complex rules of legislating. They will learn the basics of how to set up their offices, hire staff and what ethics rules they must follow. Then they’ll jockey with each other to win key committee assignments and compete in a lottery for the best office space.

One of the first orders of business for new and returning lawmakers is voting for their party leaders. Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio is expected to become the new House speaker, and Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia will become the House majority leader.

House Democrats appear prepared to keep House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California in their top job — minority leader — and a deal struck by Pelosi over the weekend averted a nasty battle for the remaining leadership positions. But one conservative Democrat, Rep. Heath Shuler of North Carolina, has said he will challenge Pelosi if she does not step aside.

“To be able to put Speaker Pelosi as minority leader is unacceptable for our party, to move our party forward in a moderate direction,” Shuler said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” though he acknowledged he didn’t have enough support to win.

Democrats will meet Wednesday to vote on the slate of candidates, and rank-and-file members will decide then whether they will accept the exact same leadership team that lost them majority control.

The Senate Democratic leadership will stay largely intact, although Democrats will have to pick a new head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee who will face the daunting task of defending as many as 23 seats in the next election — many in purple states that split their support between the two parties — while just nine Republican-held seats will be up.

Senate Republicans will keep their current leadership team. But GOP senators face a tough vote Tuesday on whether to give up earmarks entirely, a policy House Republicans already have in place and are expected to maintain in the new Congress. The idea is popular with many reform-minded senators but opposed by a number of senior members who believe steering funds to home state projects is one of their key prerogatives. Aides said the outcome of the vote is too close to call.

Leftover business

In addition to the expiring Bush tax rates, the reductions in the estate tax are also expiring. That means if Congress does not act, the estate tax rate, which this year is zero, will return next year to 55 percent on assets of more than $1 million, close to where it was before the cuts were adopted in 2001. One bipartisan Senate proposal would cap the tax at 35 percent on assets over $3.5 million, but serious negotiations haven’t started on the issue yet, aides from both parties said.

Congress must quickly decide what to do about government funding before a temporary bill that’s keeping the government running lapses December 3. House Republicans are pressing for a nearly yearlong extension but want the funding reduced to 2008 levels. A Senate Democratic leadership aide called that “flat-out unacceptable” but said Democratic senators would be open to discussing reduced spending.

Senate Democrats have a number of other bills they would like to pass but acknowledge GOP opposition will make that difficult. Because the lame-duck session will only last a few weeks, Democrats said they can’t afford to take up controversial bills that will take a long time to debate.

One example is the repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that bans openly gay men and lesbians from serving in the armed forces. The repeal is attached to the annual defense authorization bill, something that typically wins bipartisan support, but often after weeks of floor debate. Because many Republicans oppose lifting the ban and are unwilling to agree to a time limit for debate, it’s unlikely the defense bill will come up this year, aides from both parties said.

Also in the Senate, Democrats said they will try, but doubt they can win approval for, a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, the extension of unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless and funding for the settlement of a discrimination suit by black farmers.

One bill Senate Democrats hope they can get through is a long-stalled food safety measure that faces a key test vote Wednesday.

The House is expected to vote on several bills that are Democratic priorities, although none is expected to become law. They include a measure to give Social Security recipients a $250 payment to make up for not getting a cost-of-living adjustment this year because inflation is so low; a child nutrition bill that Michelle Obama has pushed; and a targeted immigration reform — the “Dream Act” — which would allow children of illegal immigrants to become citizens if they attend college or serve in the U.S. military.

Some less controversial bills will likely get through, the aides said. They include: a short-term extension of the so-called “doc-fix,” so that doctors who treat Medicare patients won’t see a reduction in their payments; and adjustments to the Alternative Minimum Tax so that more middle-income families won’t get hit with a higher tax bill next year. Several other less controversial expiring tax measures also are expected to be approved.

Americans frequently said they are eager for lawmakers in Washington to compromise with each other. The most interesting aspect of the lame-duck session might not be what bills Congress does or doesn’t pass, but how well Democrats and Republicans work together in the wake of this month’s stunning election. Will lawmakers use the lame-duck session to find compromises, or will they use it to highlight their differences and begin to position themselves for the next election?

Will Congress settle differences or scores?

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Deal ends Democratic leadership battle

Posted on November 13, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

(CNN) — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has struck a deal that ends the leadership fight for the number two slot in the new House minority, multiple senior Democratic sources tell CNN.

Under the compromise, current House majority leader Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer will become the Democratic whip, which will be the number two spot in the new Democratic minority.

South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn agreed to end his bid for that spot and instead hold a new, third-ranking leadership post that will be created for him. In a letter to Democratic colleagues on Saturday, Pelosi said she plans to designate him “Assistant Leader.”

In a statement Saturday, Clyburn — an African-American — said it was important that the party’s House leadership represented “the diverse views, backgrounds and experiences of our membership.” The new structure, he said, “honors the diversity and fosters the unity” of House Democrats.

“I believe this resolution allows us to begin the journey back to a stronger and more resilient majority,” said Clyburn, the current majority whip and a congressman since 1993.

When the Democrats become the minority party in the House they lose the position of Speaker, a shift that left Hoyer and Clyburn jockeying for the House minority whip position.

Hoyer also released a statement Saturday, saying he would look forward to serving as the Democratic whip.

“Since the election last week, I have made clear my belief that it was important for my friend Jim Clyburn to continue serving our Caucus as the third ranking Member of our Leadership,” he said.

The deal allows Rep. John Larson of Connecticut to keep his post as Democratic caucus chairman and Rep. Xavier Becerra to remain as the vice chair of the Democratic caucus.

Speaker Pelosi revealed the deal in a somewhat cryptic statement late Friday night.

“Should I receive the honor of serving as House Democratic Leader, I will nominate Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina to the number three leadership position,” Pelosi said.

Deal ends Democratic leadership battle

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Pelosi running for minority leader

Posted on November 5, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

Washington (CNN) — Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday she will run for minority leader in the new Congress, even as some moderate and conservative Democrats insisted she should step aside.

“Many of our colleagues have called with their recommendations on how to continue our fight for the middle class, and have encouraged me to run for House Democratic Leader,” she said in a written statement. “Based on those discussions, and driven by the urgency of protecting health care reform, Wall Street reform, and Social Security and Medicare, I have decided to run.”

Pelosi initially announced her intentions via Twitter.

In the wake of Tuesday’s Republican takeover of the House, Democrats will move into the minority positions in the new Congress, which convenes in January.

Shortly after Pelosi’s announcement, House Majority Whip James Clyburn announced that he would be running for minority whip. Pelosi’s No. 2 man, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer — who is widely considered to be more moderate — will “spend the next few days talking to [House] members and getting their thoughts on him being minority whip,” according to his spokeswoman, Katie Grant.

A senior Democratic source told CNN that Hoyer is “in a nice way saying he is going to run against Clyburn.”

Moderate Democratic Rep. Dan Boren of Oklahoma was the latest to urge Pelosi to step aside and not run for House minority leader. He said he would support a more centrist candidate.

“I cannot in good conscience support Nancy Pelosi as our leader,” Boren told CNN. “I think that it is important for the Democratic Party to move in a new direction for the sake of our country. Democrats and Republicans need leaders who are going to work together.”

Boren’s public pressure for Pelosi to go follows similar comments from Democratic Reps. Heath Schuler of North Carolina and Jim Matheson of Utah, who also have said they would prefer a new, more moderate Democratic leader.

“I think based on the outcome of this election, we should all acknowledge what the American people said — and they are looking for change. And I think when you, as a political party, suffer losses of historic proportions, it makes sense to change things up,” Matheson told CNN. “Therefore, I don’t think she should be running for leader.”

Rep. Jason Altmire, a moderate Democrat from a conservative district in western Pennsylvania, agreed. “I am not voting for Nancy Pelosi,” he said.

“I don’t get the sense that Speaker Pelosi understands what happened on Tuesday. We lost middle America. The Democratic party got crushed,” Altmire told CNN.

He noted that many of his fellow Democrats in districts near his lost their seats.

Despite his opposition, Altmire, who voted against major pieces of Democratic legislation, including the health care bill, said Pelosi will easily be victorious in her quest to be minority leader.

But Democratic Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. of Illinois said he would support Pelosi’s bid. “We’re in a political storm, but we don’t need to adopt an ‘any leader in a storm’ mentality,” Jackson said in a statement issued Friday. After Tuesday’s losses, moderate Democrats are now a very small part of the Democratic caucus. The bigger question, according to multiple Democratic sources, is what Pelosi’s fellow progressives want her to do. Americans United for Change, a progressive political organization, sent an e-mail notice to its members Friday morning asking them to send personal notes to Pelosi urging her to stay.

“Make sure she knows that we will support her,” said the e-mail.

“If she runs, she will win,” said one senior Democratic source.

A progressive Democrat told CNN he had talked to many of his colleagues about the situation in the past few days.

“It’s fair to say that for most progressives, their visceral place was that Nancy deserves to be the leader if she wants to be, but no one would have burst into tears if she decided not to,” said the congressman, who did not want to go on the record in order to protect private conversations.

The Pelosi supporter said she should not be blamed for the losses. Rather the setback was the result of a bad economy and, the supporter said, an ineffective job by the White House in selling Democratic achievements.

While Pelosi’s tireless fundraising has built a reservoir of support among Democratic lawmakers, several sources within the party said there are a number of progressive Democrats also who do not want her to run. Meanwhile, Rep. John Yarmuth, a Kentucky Democrat who had been a staunch supporter of Pelosi, told a local television station that he wants Pelosi to step down as Democratic leader.

“I know that there is some thought that Nancy Pelosi may stay around,” Yarmuth said Thursday. “As good a leader as she has been, I don’t think she’s the right leader to take us forward.”

Shuler is considering challenging Pelosi if she runs, according to a number of Democratic sources. Because of the makeup of the Democratic caucus, few think he would win.

Several Democratic sources say they worry about this dragging out, especially given how public the Democrats’ dispute over Pelosi’s future is becoming.

On Thursday, Pelosi told the Huffington Post that she is getting a positive response from Democratic lawmakers because she has “kept the caucus together” and increased Democratic numbers in 2006 and 2008.

Matheson told CNN one of the political concerns is that it will be harder to recruit candidates to run in 2012 with Pelosi as the Democratic leader — especially those who just lost and may want to try to get their old seats back.

CNN’s Evan Glass contributed to this report.

Pelosi running for minority leader

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2012 Senate battle already under way

Posted on November 5, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

(CNN) — Three days after Democrats took a whipping in the House in the midterm elections, jockeying has already begun in the next battle for the Senate, with Democrats — and even some Republicans — already feeling the heat.

Some lawmakers are already quietly discussing whether to run for re-election in two years. Thirty-three Senate seats are up for grabs in 2012, with 23 of those belonging to Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them.

It’s doubtful that the political climate will be as friendly in 2012 to Democrats as it was in 2006, when the party won back control of both the House and the Senate. Among those Democratic senators who could face challenging re-elections: Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jim Webb of Virginia, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Bill Nelson of Florida, and Sen.-elect Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

“There is no question that Democrats start the next cycle on the defensive. They’re defending more seats in some tough, red, territory,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “But at least Democrats have the advantage of time. We’re still a long way from the next elections and it’s impossible to know where the economy will be in two years.”

Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who is part of the Democrats’ coalition in the chamber, is also up for re-election. The big question is whether he’ll face one or two opponents.

But it’s not just Democrats who will be facing difficult re-elections.

While Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana survived a sex scandal in this year’s election, there’s no guarantee Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, also tainted by a sex scandal, will be as successful when he’s up for re-election in 2012. And Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who pulled an upset earlier this in year in the battle to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, will be in the Democrats’ sights next election.

But it’s not just Democrats that Republicans have to fear. The Tea Party movement successfully targeted incumbent GOP Sens. Bob Bennett of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska in this year’s primaries. While Murkowski may survive, thanks to a general election bid as a write-in candidate, the writing is on the wall for Republican lawmakers who have in the past been willing to compromise with Democrats and who may not be fiscally conservative enough for Tea Party activists.

Republican senators up for re-election who could come under attack by the Tea Party movement include, Orrin Hatch of Utah, Olympia Snowe of Maine, Richard Lugar of Indiana, Bob Corker of Tennessee, and even Brown, who received assistance from Tea Party activists in his election victory at the beginning of the year.

On Wednesday, Red State’s Erick Erickson, a CNN contributor, added Brown to his list of “Potential Tea Party Targets for 2012.” Tea Party supporters have issues with some of Brown’s votes since he was sworn in. Among national Tea Party groups, Tea Party Express took the lead this year in targeting what they call “Republicans in name only,” or RINOs.

“Hopefully the 2010 election results will cause more senators to see the light about excessive growth of government and deficit spending. So we will give them a chance to improve before we make them feel the heat in their re-election campaigns,” said Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell. “After the results this week, my guess is many senators will suddenly be more willing to adhere to conservative ideals.”

An influential conservative senator who bucked his party leadership when it came to primary battles for open Senate seats this year said he won’t be targeting fellow Republicans in the chamber in 2012.

“I have no intentions, at this point, of supporting primary challengers to any of my colleagues,” Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina told CNN’s John King on Wednesday.

“I think you may see primary challenges if our colleagues don’t do what we’ve promised as Republicans. And that’s to support constitutional limited government. I didn’t recruit any primary challengers this time. … But the people, I believe, will help us make those decisions.”

2012 Senate battle already under way

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Murkowski’s fate: High stakes ‘spelling bee’

Posted on November 4, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

(CNN) — An unyielding and exuberant Sen. Lisa Murkowski thanked her supporters on election night as she appeared headed to a once-improbable victory in Alaska’s Senate contest.

Just two months ago, the incumbent Republican conceded her party’s primary to little-known Tea Party-backed Joe Miller. Shortly after, Murkowski dove into the middle of Republican infighting by launching a write-in bid to retain her seat.

Party leaders criticized her decision. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who endorsed Miller, called Murkowski’s revived campaign “a futile effort on her part.” The last U.S. senator to win on a write-in campaign was Strom Thurmond in 1954.

“They said it couldn’t be done,” Murkowski told CNN as the results came in late Tuesday. “We looked at that, and we said if it can be done anywhere, it can be done in Alaska, and let’s prove the rest of the country wrong.”

Aware of the intricacies of a write-in win, Murkowski cautioned that “we’re not done yet. There’s still a lot out more there; we know that.”

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The votes for write-in candidates outnumbered those for both Miller and Scott McAdams, the Democratic candidate.

But the outcome of the general election might not be known for days because officials need to determine which write-in votes actually went to Murkowski.

She was one of 161 people who filed the paperwork necessary to qualify as a write-in candidate, according to the Alaska Division of Elections.

As of Wednesday night, with 78 percent of precincts reporting, the write-in candidates were leading the pack with 41 percent of the vote. Miller had 34 percent, and McAdams trailed with 24 percent.

CNN has projected that the Democratic candidate will finish in third place but has not yet called the race for Murkowski or Miller.

Despite Murkowski’s excitement, Miller’s campaign remained optimistic Wednesday, saying, “This campaign is not over!”

“Previous write-in campaigns in Alaska have demonstrated that as much as 5 [percent] to 6 percent of returned ballots have not met the standard to be counted as a valid vote,” the campaign said in a statement.

“Candidates who mount a write-in campaign opt for an uphill battle. At this point, without a single write-in ballot counted, Lisa Murkowski has no claim on a victory.”

Another fellow Alaskan running as a write-in is Lisa M. Lackey, whose presence on the ballot may complicate things for Murkowski.

Under state law, for a write-in vote to be valid, the name written on the ballot must match the name as it is listed on the write-in candidate’s declaration of candidacy. In Murkowski’s case, the law requires her supporters to write “Lisa Murkowski” or “Murkowski” for the vote to be counted.

However, in the event a voter misspells or abbreviates a candidate’s name, such as “Lisa M.” instead of “Lisa Murkowski,” the Division of Elections would determine the voter’s intent “on a case-by-case basis,” according to division director Gail Fenumiai.

With two potential “Lisa M’s” as write-in candidates, determining the intent of a voter who writes in “Lisa M.” on his or her ballot would be much more difficult.

Matt Felling, an anchor for KTVA-TV in Anchorage, said the race could prove to be the “highest stakes spelling bee in American political history.”

“Now we are going to find out how many people can put nine letters together that somewhat resemble Murkowski,” he told CNN.

Miller’s campaign blasted the Division of Elections’ standards as “extraordinarily ambiguous.”

On election nights, the Division of Elections tabulates the total number of write-in votes cast — not a breakdown by candidate.

The Division of Elections only calculates the number of write-in votes for specific candidates if the total number of write-in votes cast is more than the number of votes received for any candidate, or if the total number of write-in votes comes in a close second to the top vote-getter.

Before the Division of Elections can start tabulating the write-in votes for specific candidates, all of the ballots cast have to be counted, including absentee ballots, early votes and questioned ballots.

The lieutenant governor’s office and the Division of Elections plan to count all absentee ballots next Tuesday and move on to the hand count of the write-in votes the following day. The count of the write-in ballots is expected to take about three days.

The count was moved up from the original date of November 18 to provide election results in “a timely manner,” according to Renee Limoge, spokeswoman for Alaska Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell.

Miller told CNN he would challenge the decision to count the votes earlier than planned. He also said that as of Wednesday, he had not heard from the national GOP, which backed his candidacy.

Murkowski said she intends to caucus with the Republicans should she return to the Senate.

“I’m not my party’s nominee, but I am a Republican,” she said.

With a victory, Murkowski would avenge her August primary loss to Miller in the latest chapter of a feud with his main backers and her long-standing tension with Palin.

Murkowski was first appointed to her post by her father, then-Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2002. Palin defeated him in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary.

CNN’s Drew Griffin, Jason Hanna and Robert Yoon contributed to this report.

Murkowski’s fate: High stakes ‘spelling bee’

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A long, nasty campaign comes to an end

Posted on November 1, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

Washington (CNN) — No more robocalls interrupting dinner or angry campaign ads at every TV break — the most expensive mid-term elections in history finally take place Tuesday, when voters decide who goes to Congress and governors’ offices.

Polls indicate a dissatisfied electorate may clean house — literally — by tossing out the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and possibly doing the same in the Senate.

With all predictions, including those of Democrats, signaling Republican gains, the election is considered a referendum on both the Democratic-controlled Congress and President Barack Obama’s first two years in office.

Losses by the governing party are common in the first mid-term election it faces, but the shift Tuesday could rival or match historic levels dating back decades.

Unemployment of 9.6 percent amid a slow recovery from economic recession has been the dominant issue, with Republicans accusing Obama and Democrats of pushing through expensive policies that have expanded government without solving the problem.

Obama has led Democrats in defending his record, saying steps such as the economic stimulus bill and auto industry bailout were necessary to prevent a depression, while health care reform and Wall Street reform will lay the foundation for sustainable future growth.

As voting day approached, voter anger appeared to tune out the Democratic arguments. Conservative groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce funded attack ads that skewered increased spending under Obama and the health care reform bill he championed, while labor unions and traditional Democratic donors backed messaging that warned a GOP victory would bring back Republican deregulation and policies that caused the recession.

The long and bitter campaign season will cost more than $3.5 billion to be the most expensive non-presidential vote ever, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Republicans need to win an additional 39 seats to claim the House majority, and 10 more Senate seats to overtake Democrats there.

With around 100 of the 435 House seats at stake considered “in play,” or competitive, the anti-Democratic mood is predicted to result in big Republican gains.

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On the Senate side, where 37 of the 100 seats are being contested, the majority will be decided by key races in Nevada, Washington and a few other states where Democratic incumbents face strong challenges.

A new national poll released Monday showed the number of Americans who say things are going badly in the country, at 75 percent, is higher than it has been on the eve of any mid-term election since the question was first asked in the mid-1970s.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey also indicates that the economy remains, by far, the top issue on the minds of Americans, more than all other major issues combined, including terrorism, health care, illegal immigrants and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In addition, the rise of the conservative Tea Party movement has added a new element to the election cycle, roiling Republican races by boosting little-known and inexperienced candidates to victory over mainstream figures in primaries across the country.

Tuesday’s vote will show how many of the so-called Tea Party candidates can win in a general election, but no matter the final tally, the result is expected to shift the Republican agenda to the right.

That means little chance of compromise or bipartisan approaches on major issues, observers warn.

Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who worked for the last Republican House speaker, Dennis Hastert, put it bluntly: “It’s been a hostile atmosphere, but it will be hostile on nitroglycerin.”

Ohio Republican Rep. John Boehner will be the new House speaker if the GOP wins control of the chamber. He already has signaled little appetite to negotiate with the White House or congressional Democrats, saying last week that “this is not a time for compromise.”

Boehner and other conservatives say the top priorities must be spending cuts to try to balance the budget and job creation to spur the economy. However, they also advocate extending Bush-era tax cuts for everyone at a cost of $4 trillion over the next decade.

In the Senate, legislative gridlock is likely if Republicans strengthen their current minority of 41 seats. Obama and Democrats accuse Senate Republicans of using obstruction tactics as a political tool, showing the distrust and animosity that already exists.

Democrats are also wary of a recent comment by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who told the National Journal, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

The first test of a new relationship will come in mid-November when Congress convenes a post-election lame-duck session to try to clear unfinished legislation before the newly elected Congress convenes in January. Among other issues, lawmakers must decide whether and how to extend Bush-era tax cuts.

Voters on Tuesday also will decide governors’ races in 37 of the 50 states, with the outcome potentially having an influence on redistricting based on the results of the 2010 census.

Every 10 years, the states redraw House district lines to reflect population shifts. Some states gain more House seats due to population growth, while others lose seats due to declines.

In most cases, state legislatures draw the lines and governors have the power to approve or veto that map. Governors also can influence whether any loss or gain of seats in their state involves districts represented by Republicans or Democrats.

The list of states that will gain or lose seats is released in December. However, Election Data Services issued estimates based on preliminary census figures that indicated Texas will gain four seats, Florida will gain two, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will each gain one, while Ohio and New York will lose two seats, and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will each lose one.

CNN’s Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh, Paul Steinhauser and Jessica Yellin contributed to this report.

A long, nasty campaign comes to an end

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Meek story shows Dems’ Senate fears

Posted on October 29, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

Washington (CNN) — The point that many people seem to be missing in the Florida Senate saga is that this whole mess actually has very little to do with Rep. Kendrick Meek or the Sunshine State — it’s all about a much broader fear among senior Democrats that they may be about to lose control of the chamber.

There are some fascinating inside details I’ve been able to piece together about how and why this Meek story exploded into the public.

In the words of one senior Democratic Party official, the Meek story came to a head because former President Bill Clinton “flew into a purple rage” about the Democratic candidate breaking a private pledge to him to get out of the Senate race and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist.

But a source close to Clinton said he “never saw anything close” to rage from the former president, who is at peace with how this wound up.

“He always believed this was Meek’s decision,’ said the source close to Clinton.

As for the Obama adminstiration’s role in this, I’m told by senior Democratic officials that while White House aides were in the loop on the Clinton-Meek talks, they were not driving the conversation and were not lobbying Meek to go.

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I’m also told that senior officials deliberately kept President Obama out of the loop on these behind-the-scenes conversations because they did not want to get him personally tainted by the Meek story. That came no doubt in part because they didn’t want it to blow up in his face like the botched attempt to get Joe Sestak out of the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania Senate race so many months ago. (Clinton was the intermediary then, too).

But all the jockeying and horse-trading is really just a sideshow. The real story is how bad the broader electoral map has gotten for Democrats heading into the final weekend of this midterm election: Top Democratic officials privately say they believe they are going to lose the House, but as they survey the country they are getting increasingly worried they will also lose the Senate.

These Democratic officials tell me they’ve reviewed private polling numbers that suggest Sen. Patty Murray of Washington has a razor-thin lead of about two points over Republican Dino Rossi despite all kinds of help from the president and first lady Michelle Obama, among others.

They’re also deeply worried about whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada can beat Republican Sharron Angle, so suddenly the “firewall” out West to keep control of the Senate might be more like a crumbling brick wall.

These Democratic officials also say in private that they think Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin is likely to lose to Republican Ron Johnson and they’re worried enough about Obama’s old Senate seat that the president is heading home to Chicago, Illinois, on Saturday night for a rescue mission to again help Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias in his battle with Republican Mark Kirk.

Thanks to that awful landscape, Democratic officials made the brutal political calculation to try to toss Meek aside, because if Crist somehow beats Republican Marco Rubio in the three-way battle, he has indicated he will align himself with Democrats. A Crist victory would offset a potential loss in another state like Nevada or Wisconsin to help keep the Senate in the party’s hands.

“It’s got nothing to do with Florida,” one senior Democratic Party official told me about the story that’s rocked the state. “Except that if Kendrick was at 25 percent [in the polls] there may have been some sense that he was driving African-American votes that [Democratic gubernatorial candidate] Alex Sink couldn’t get on her own.”

Instead, Meek is stuck at 15 percent in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, a distant third place behind Rubio (42 percent) and Crist (35 percent). My sources say that given that grim political reality, several top Democrats have been privately encouraging Meek to step aside for the good of the party and Clinton was brought in as the “closer” to help seal the deal.

For several days over the last week or so, Clinton believed he had persuaded Meek to throw his support to Crist. I’m told that one of many scenarios had Crist and Meek joining up this past Tuesday at an event in Florida, but there was also another more dramatic scenario: The two candidates would shock the political world by getting together shortly after last Sunday morning’s CNN debate among the three candidates moderated by Candy Crowley.

But two people close to Meek persuaded him to reconsider: his wife and Rep. Alcee Hastings of Florida, both of whom made the case that he would upset his supporters, especially African-American voters who had already turned out in early voting, and jeopardize his career long-term.

At one point, Democratic officials say Meek went into “radio silence” mode, infuriating Clinton and others as they waited to see if the congressman would follow through on his private promise to get out of the race. When Meek finally emerged to tell party officials that he was staying in, Clinton was unhappy.

Shortly thereafter, the story was leaked to Politico, causing some chaos. The leak sent the message to the Democratic base that the party hierarchy does not believe that Meek can win, so the rank and file might prefer to vote for Crist instead of throwing their vote on Meek.

Top Republicans are laughing at this strategy and the broader Democratic claim that the Florida seat is still winnable for Crist. One said, “I think a fair question for the White House is this: What does it tell your Democratic base to see that senior party officials are willing to throw an incumbent African-American Democrat congressman under the bus in place of a former Republican who campaigned against the health care bill and on a pro-life platform?”

In fact, I asked top Democratic officials if it’s really worth it to try to push Meek out, even though the whole plan has now been exposed and it appears the congressman will not budge. The consensus was yes, it’s worth it simply because holding on to the Senate is the Democrat’s sole chance of keeping some power on Capitol Hill.

One senior official was particularly blunt in saying the goal among top Democrats now is to get Meek’s numbers even lower than 15 percent in the polls, perhaps even below 10 percent, in the hopes that he goes so low that Crist gets a surge of support and pulls out a comeback victory. But is this really worth the risk of dropping one of your own Democrats down below 10 percent?

“Who cares if Charlie Crist wins and he caucuses with Democrats?” this Democratic official said bluntly, adding that this strategy is critical “especially if we don’t hold on out West” in some of the other Senate battles.

In other words, time to tighten the seat belts. Tuesday might be even bumpier than expected.

Meek story shows Dems’ Senate fears

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Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst

Posted on October 21, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

Washington (CNN) — It has been said over and over again: The 2010 midterms is the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and by virtue of their position in power, the anti-Democratic election.

A sputtering economy, 9.6 percent national unemployment rate, housing crisis and little hope for a quick turnaround on the jobs front has forced Democrats on the defense heading into November.

OK, that is an understatement.

Democrats are under siege all across the country and are in deep danger of losing control of the House and if a massive wave develops on November 2, perhaps even the Senate.

Fueled by a huge fundraising effort by the Republican Governors Association, the GOP is also in position to reclaim more than a half dozen governorships including in states that President Obama easily won in 2008 such as Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Polls offers data that shows Democrats running for Senate seats in four key states are in dire straits and a president with little juice to help propel them to victory.

Video: Candidates go silent

Video: Can write-in win Senate seat?

Video: Strickland, Kasich on Ohio race

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In all four of these states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio, Obama’s job approval rating ranges from a low of 33 percent (Arkansas) to a high of 42 percent (Ohio). The anti-Washington, thus anti-Democratic, theme shines like a bright neon sign in each of these races.

And the GOP’s rubber stamp argument seems to be resonating with voters, whether it is true or not: Sending, say, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln back to Washington means she will be a rubber stamp for Obama. Lincoln, who stuck to her centrist views and beat back a strong primary challenge from her political left earlier this year, is trailing her GOP opponent, Rep. John Boozman, by 14 points.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher is down 15 points to Republican Rob Portman. And in Florida, GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has a 26 point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three way race that also features Charlie Crist. Crist is running an independent bid for the Senate seat and trails Rubio by 14 points.

(The National Republican Senatorial Committee is also making the claim to West Virginia voters that the popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama if elected to the Senate).

But the Democrats running for governor in three of four of these states surveyed by CNN/Time/OPR shows that these candidates are either competitive or leading in their individual races. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe has a 27-point lead over his GOP rival Jim Keet; Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is up one point over Republican opponent John Kasich; and in the race for Florida governor, Democrat Alex Sink trails Republican Rick Scott by three points, which is within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

So, I think it is fair to say — outside of Alaska — that Democratic incumbents and candidates in these three states are not being stuck in the same category as their Democratic counterparts running for Senate. That is not to say the national mood is not having a negative affect on these Democrats, it just hasn’t been devastating.

As for the CNN/Time/OPR Poll, I dug a little deeper into the survey and found these interesting data points:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski obviously faces a difficult challenge in having her supporters correctly write-in her name on the ballot on November 2. The poll shows that Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller are tied at 37 percent, with Democratic nominee Scott McAdams registering support at 23 percent. But when respondents were asked if they might choose another candidate if they think the write-in procedure is too complicated, 3 percent answered yes. So, take that 3 percent away from Murkowski’s 37 percent and all of a sudden Miller is up three points. Murkowski is still within in the margin of error, but as CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted “in a tight race, this might be the difference between winning and losing.”

Murkowski’s greatest support comes from Anchorage and the Panhandle, while Miller wins Fairbanks and the Anchorage area when you expand it beyond the city limits.

Arkansas: How troubling is this for Democrat Blanche Lincoln? She is losing the woman vote to Republican John Boozman by eight points. She performs strongest in the east, while Boozman wins every other region of the state.

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is winning independents by four points over Charlie Crist, who is running an independent bid. Rubio’s lead is within the 6 percent margin of error. Rubio is also winning every corner of the state except southern Florida/Miami area where Crist holds a modest lead over the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In the governor’s race, Democrat Alex Sink is losing every region to Republican Rick Scott, but is crushing him in the southern Florida/Miami area. Sink, too, has soft support with women. She leads Scott by five points with women voters, but that is within the 5 percent margin of error for that specific question.

Ohio: In the Senate contest, Democrat Lee Fisher is losing to Republican Rob Portman among men and woman and in every age category. Geographically, Fisher leads Portman in the Cleveland area by eight points, but that is within the 8.5 percent margin of error. Portman is winning in every other part of the state. As for the competitive governor’s race, Ted Strickland is winning women, while John Kasich wins men. Strickland has a 15-point lead over Kasich with voters who earn less than $50,000, while Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with voters who earn more than $50,000. Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with independents. As for geographic regions, Strickland is leading in the Cleveland area and the central part of the state (the latter is within the margin of error), while Kasich is carrying Cincinnati/Dayton and has a slight lead in Columbus. In the industrial north, the two candidates are dead even.

Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst

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Can Dems and GOP work together after the election?

Posted on October 18, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

Washington (CNN) — Bipartisanship is in the eye of the beholder, it seems, as Democrats and Republicans ponder how cooperation between them can improve after the upcoming congressional elections.

The voting on November 2 is expected to diminish Democratic majorities in both chambers and perhaps cost them control of the House. Whatever the final tally, widespread voter dissatisfaction with the hostile political climate in Washington is evident.

Democrats blame Republican intransigence, calling the GOP a “party of no” that has opposed almost every initiative to undermine President Barack Obama’s campaign pledge to change Washington politics.

Republican leaders say their opposition is a response to a left-leaning agenda pushed by Obama and Democratic leaders that far exceeds what the public wants.

In a new development this election cycle, the conservative Tea Party movement wants to throw out both parties, but its agenda aligns it with Republicans in the heated campaigning.

Video: David Axelrod talks elections, tax cuts

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While Obama and some Democrats and Republicans say they hope for better relations after the election, they express different views of what that would mean.

“We’re going to continue to reach out, and we’re going to look for common ground and a way forward to solve the problems facing this country,” White House senior adviser David Axelrod said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program Sunday.

Axelrod predicted Democrats will keep their majorities in both chambers, but conceded that “Republicans will have more seats in Congress.”

“We’re hoping with that comes a greater sense of responsibility,” he said.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas had a different take, telling “Fox News Sunday” that it is up to Obama to change, not Republicans.

“If the president’s going to maintain his ideological stance and try to jam things through to support the left in America, when we’re still a center-right country, then we’re going to say ‘no,’ ” Cornyn said, adding that Republicans will work with Obama on issues such as job creation, spending cuts and reducing the national debt.

“There is , I think, a fatigue on the part of the American people with the aggressive agenda that, frankly, they don’t agree with, but they haven’t been listened to,” Cornyn said. “They’ve been lectured to, and they’re tired of it. They’re going to speak up on November 2nd.”

Cornyn’s Republican colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, agreed on the CBS program “Face the Nation” that Obama and Democratic leaders “over-reached” in the first two years, which he said rattled the American people.

“I don’t think it’s about everybody becoming a Republican in the last two years,” Graham said of expected GOP election victories next month. “I do believe it’s a rejection of an agenda that scares people. The health care bill, the stimulus package, the financial regulation, all the spending was not what people expected from this president.”

At the same time, some bipartisanship will occur, Graham predicted.

“There will be a bipartisan effort to extend the Bush tax cuts and not let them expire” at the end of the year, Graham said. As Democratic candidates in swing states realize voters want middle-ground policies instead of a liberal agenda, more compromise will come, he said.

“I think we’re going to have some bipartisanship when it comes to replacing the health care bill with a more moderate approach,” Graham said. “You’ll see some Democrats and Republicans working early on to try to moderate things.”

According to Graham, the Tea Party movement has helped refocus the national political debate on a center-right agenda, but added that conservatives shouldn’t get carried away.

“Our Tea Party friends have done us a favor, “Graham said. “But if we talk about doing away with Social Security as part of our agenda, then we’re going to lose the public. … If you get too far right or too far left, you’re going to lose the American people.”

Axelrod and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs outlined an agenda for the second half of Obama’s presidential term that focuses on the nation’s immediate and long-term economic welfare.

Gibbs told the NBC program “Meet the Press” that the president will work on strengthening the economy and trying to ensure its future stability, while continuing to push education reform and making sure that health care and Wall Street reforms are properly implemented.

Obama needs Democrats and Republicans to work together to deal with the federal debt, Gibbs said. A bipartisan debt commission is scheduled to report a set of proposals in December.

He made no mention of major issues such as immigration reform and energy reform, which Obama pushed strongly in his first two years. Axelrod, speaking on CNN, said both issues were part of the necessary foundation of reforms for sustainable economic growth in the future.

“I think that regardless of the outcome of election night that voters are going to want two political parties who may have different ideas but understand they have to come together and work together to solve our problems,” Gibbs later told reporters.

However, other Democrats don’t expect a new spirit of partisanship to emerge.

“It doesn’t appear right now that the Republican Party is welcoming moderates any more,” Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill said of the effect of the Tea Party movement on GOP candidates.

“I think that independent voters need to take a hard look in these elections and realize that what we may be getting to is the kind of gridlock that, frankly, is not something that’s desirable in terms of good policy in this country,” McCaskill said on “Fox News Sunday.

Republicans “won’t even pledge that they’ll quit earmarking,” she said, later adding: “If they won’t even say they’ll stop earmarking in this kind of spending problem that we’re facing, I just think there’s a lot of politics being played.”

Can Dems and GOP work together after the election?

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New York gubernatorial candidate criticizes gays

Posted on October 11, 2010 by admin| Comments Off

New York (CNN) — New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino is disputing some comments attributed to him Sunday, in which he criticized gays.

The two lines in question were part of a longer, written political statement that was handed out at an address to a group of Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg neighborhood and obtained by CNN from New York affiliate NY1.

“There is nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual,” the statement said. “That is not how God created us.”

“I do not agree with this passage, nor did I say it,” Paladino said in a statement released late Sunday. “Apparently a few reporters relied upon suggested remarks distributed by my hosts at the synagogue in Williamsburg after my departure, not the actual statement I made.”

“I unequivocally have no other reservations about homosexuality,” Paladino’s statement continued. “I enjoy a close relationship with my nephew who is gay and I certainly consider him to be a functional child of God.”

Paladino’s nephew, Jeffrey Hannon, a member of the campaign staff, was contacted by CNN early Monday.

“I have no comment right now,” he said.

The written remarks given to reporters were identical to Paladino’s spoken comments other than the two sentences in question.

In his spoken comments, Paladino said he didn’t want children “to be brainwashed into thinking that homosexuality is an equally valid or successful option,” compared to heterosexuality. “It isn’t.”

The candidate’s remarks came a day after New York police announced the arrest of an eighth suspect in a series of brutal, anti-gay hate crimes against four men.

The incident last weekend involved three victims being held against their will by as many as nine assailants who beat them in a vacant apartment and sodomized two of them, police said. A fourth victim was beaten and robbed in connection with the attacks.

“Don’t misquote me as wanting to hurt homosexual people in any way,” Paladino said Sunday. “That would be a dastardly lie — my approach is live and let live.”

“I just think my children and your children would be much better off and much more successful getting married and raising a family,” he said.

Paladino also slammed his Democratic opponent, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, for marching in New York’s gay pride parade in June.

“That’s not the example that we should be showing the children and certainly not in our schools,” he said.

Cuomo spokesman Josh Vlasto responded to Paladino’s comments Sunday.

“Mr. Paladino’s statement displays a stunning homophobia and a glaring disregard for basic equality,” Vlasto said in a statement. “These comments along with other views he has espoused make it clear that he is way out of the mainstream and is unfit to represent New York.”

Paladino’s remarks also drew fire from gay rights groups.

“Carl Paladino’s comments would matter if they were coming from a serious political figure, however they are not,” said Christopher Barron, chairman of the gay conservative group GOProud, in an email to CNN. “They are instead coming from the imploding campaign of a man with the personal baggage of John Edwards and all the electability of Alan Keyes.”

The Log Cabin Republicans of New York State also took issue with the candidate.

“Carl Paladino’s statements are unfortunate and show he lacks an understanding of what it means to be gay,” said Gregory T. Angelo, chairman of the group. “I think gay men and women — my neighbors and your neighbors — would be much better off and much more successful if they were allowed equal rights and the option of getting married and raising a family. I don’t want New Yorkers to be brainwashed into thinking that ignorance is an equally valid and successful option. It isn’t.”

But Paladino’s campaign manager, Michael Caputo, stood by the gubernatorial candidate’s comments on homosexuality.

“Carl Paladino’s position on this is exactly equivalent to the Catholic Church,” Caputo told CNN. “And if Andrew Cuomo has a problem with the Catholic Church’s position on abortion and homosexuality, he needs to take it up with his parish priest.”

CNN’s Cheryl Robinson, Mark Preston and Jason Kessler contributed to this report.

New York gubernatorial candidate criticizes gays

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