The idea of prohibiting members from designating funding for specific projects in their states or districts is popular with reform-minded deficit hawks, but it has traditionally been opposed by some congressional veterans trying to steer funds to constituencies back home.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, a longtime defender of earmarks, announced Monday that he would vote for the ban.

“I’m not wild about turning over more spending authority to the executive branch, but I have come to share the view of most Americans that our nation is at a crossroads,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. The “only way we will be able to turn the corner and save our future is if elected leaders like me make the kinds of difficult decisions voters are clearly asking us to make.”

But McConnell also expressed his own personal conflict on the issue.

McConnell backs banning earmarks

“Make no mistake, I know the good that has come from the projects I have helped support throughout my state. I don’t apologize for them,” McConnell said. “But there is simply no doubt that the abuse of this practice has caused Americans to view it as a symbol of the wasted and the out-of-control spending that every Republican in Washington is determined to fight.”

President Barack Obama responded with a statement welcoming McConnell’s “decision to join me and members of both parties who support cracking down on wasteful earmark spending, which we can’t afford during these tough economic times.”

But the president added, “We can’t stop with earmarks as they represent only part of the problem.”

As Republicans voted in their caucus, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri said she wants the full Senate to vote on a binding moratorium that would include Democrats, too.

“The arguments against this, every single one of them, I just don’t think pass the smell test,” she said about senators who oppose a ban.

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, later indicated disagreement with McCaskill. Reid defended earmarks Tuesday, telling Capitol Hill reporters he has “an obligation to the people of Nevada … not to some bureaucrat with green eyeshades.”

“I think (an earmark ban is) a tremendous step backward,” Reid said. “It just gives more power to the executive. … I am not in favor of delegating my constitutional responsibility to the White House.”

Nevertheless, McCaskill’s push puts pressure on Senate Democrats, many of whom agree with Reid, to get behind a ban, which has taken on increased political significance in light of Tea Party gains in the midterm elections.

McCaskill is working with Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma on an earmark-ban amendment they might add to a food safety bill that’s expected to be on the floor later this week. She is working with Democratic leaders to schedule a vote.

The ban would come in the form of a change in Senate rules, an aide to Coburn explained. Senators would be allowed to raise points of order against bills with earmarks, which would be binding.

“If these things (earmarks) are so good, will someone tell me how they’re decided,” a spirited McCaskill asked reporters. “Little cards getting handed around in caucus. There is not an open process. Who decides who gets the most money and on what basis is that decided?”

McConnell, who unexpectedly lent his support to the ban, said in a speech this month to the Heritage Foundation that “you could eliminate every congressional earmark and you would save no money.”

That’s because earmarks don’t represent extra spending. They represent spending that lawmakers have already approved for federal agencies. And earmarks typically account for less than 1 percent of the budget.

For the earmark ban to reduce spending, “you have to lower the spending authorizations by the same amount,” said Maya MacGuineas, fiscal policy director at the New America Foundation.

It’s typically up to federal agencies to decide how their money gets allocated to projects in states, cities and counties, and those decisions are made through an application-and-review process, except when earmarks are involved.

Definitions of earmarks vary widely, and agencies catalog them differently. But typically an earmark is defined as a slice of agency money that a lawmaker or the president requests be set aside for a specific project.

So earmarks are not subject to the same review process, and they are often slipped into unrelated spending bills at the last minute without most people’s knowledge.

The notion that earmarks are wasteful bridges to nowhere is misleading.

Residents of a state or city may not view federal dollars earmarked to help them improve their transit system as a waste.

The problem is that the earmark system is based on “political muscle rather than merit,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan spending watchdog group.

The earmark issue is one of several the lame-duck session of the Democratic Congress is expected to tackle.

The session convened Monday, with members preparing to make decisions on a host of contentious issues that could have major political ramifications for Obama and the incoming Republican House majority.

At the top of the agenda: whether to extend the Bush tax cuts for families making more than $250,000 a year. Republicans contend that failure to extend the cuts for everyone would be a mistake in a weak economy. Obama considers such a move a roughly $700 billion budget-busting mistake, but he recently suggested he’s willing to compromise.

If Congress fails to act, all the cuts will expire at the end of the year.

In addition to the tax cuts, the lame-duck Congress also has to consider expiring cuts in the estate tax and decide what to do about a bill that is keeping the government running but is set to expire December 3.

Other items on the agenda include:

– A possible repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy barring gays and lesbians from serving openly in the armed forces.

– Ratification of the nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.

– A child nutrition bill backed by first lady Michelle Obama.

– The Dream Act, which would create a path to citizenship for young illegal immigrants if they attend college or serve in the military.

CNN’s Alan Silverleib, Dana Bash, Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Earmarks get ax from GOP senators

Take 2

Actor Kal Penn, better known as Kumar from the “Harold & Kumar” movies is back at the White House, ABC News reports. He left this summer to film another H&K movie.

The actor, whose real name is Kalpen Modi, began his duties on Monday as the associate director in the Office of Public Engagement. He served in a similar role prior to heading off to the movie set.

Who knew he had time to write another book?

President Obama’s children’s book, “Of Thee I Sing: A Letter to My Daughters” has been released.

The 31-page book, featuring illustrations of his daughters and his dog Bo, begins: “Have I told you lately how wonderful you are? How the sound of your feet running from afar brings dancing rhythms to my day?”

Proceeds from the book, which has a suggested retail price of $17.99, will be donated to a scholarship fund for children of fallen and disabled soldiers.

Notable quotable

“Hey have you heard that President Obama’s picture book for kids comes out tomorrow? That’s when you know things have changed right? When Bush writes a 500-page memoir and Obama hands in a coloring book” — Jimmy Fallon

No tea (conspiracy) for me

Bristol Palin is knocking down claims that there is a conspiracy by Tea Party activists to keep her on ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars.” She has consistently received low scores throughout the show and yet remains in the top four.

Bristol Palin was quick to dismiss the notion that she’s only there because of her mother’s supporters. In an interview with E! News, she said “Think about all the people who hate my mom!”

I’ll have what the POTUS is having

CNN’s Eatocracy blog takes a look at just how first class the food is aboard Air Force One — complete with pictures and a critique from senior photojournalist Mark Walz.

Who knew there was an Air Force One tobasco sauce?

Picture you need to see

From Getty Images: Members of the U.S. Park Police arrest gay rights activist and former Army Lt. Dan Choi, who handcuffed himself to the fence of the White House during a protest Monday.

The protesters are calling on the Obama administration and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to keep their promise on repealing ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ — the law banning gays and lesbians from openly serving in the military.

Headline of the day

“The Economy of the Aging Sex Kitten”

Late-night laughs

Conan O’Brien: “Recent reports suggest that passages from former President George W. Bush’s new book may have been lifted from other books … Yes especially the parts about Dumbledore and Voldemort.”

Jon Stewart: “[Cindy McCain is] against what ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ does but she’s for ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ No wonder they have so many houses! They need them to keep all their different beliefs in them.”

Jimmy Kimmell: “Sarah Palin’s reality show premiered last night on TLC. Huge ratings — 5 million viewers. It was the biggest premiere in the history of that network. If you didn’t see it, it’s basically ‘Jon and Kate’ plus about four meets ‘The Deadliest Catch’”

Political Circus: Kumar’s back

I’m not just a pretty face!

Check out Politico‘s “10 Crushworthy New Reps” featuring Hansen Clarke, Colleen Hanabusa, Adam Kinzinger and Kristi Noem.

Kinzinger, described by many Hill staffers as “the new hottie on the block,” gets this glowing endorsement from writer Karin Tanabe:

“Why he’s crushworthy: He’s heroic. He won the U.S. Air Force Airman’s Medal for saving a woman’s life in 2007. Plus, we’ll say it: He’s handsome. A pilot and an Iraq war veteran, Kinzinger, in aviators and a flight suit, conjures up memories of Tom Cruise in ‘Top Gun’ — which isn’t a bad thing!”

As for GOP rising star Noem from South Dakota? “She’s more than pretty. Noem isn’t just a strikingly attractive woman, she’s a strikingly attractive woman who can run a farm.”

‘A happy wife is happy life’

Republican Sen. John McCain’s wife, Cindy — a staunch supporter of gay rights — is featured in an ad for the NOH8 campaign championing the repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy.

“Our political and religious leaders tell LGBT youth that they have no future,” she said in the ad, which features other celebrities. “They can’t serve our country openly.”

Her ad, though, could cause some issues at home. After all, her husband has signaled he is against repealing the law, which bars openly gay men and women from serving in the military.

From the Twitterverse

What’s in a name, you ask? McCain’s daughter Meghan has the answer.

@McCainBlogette: ” ‘Peter Sellers’ was my secret service nickname and has been my pseudonym at hotels for YEARS (whenever a crazy person threatening my family)”

The next South Beach Diet?

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, and his wife are planning to write a vegan diet book called “The Cleveland Diet.”

It will detail Kucinich’s “evolution from eating a traditional meat-and-potatoes diet to eating no animal products,” according to the article.

Headline of the day

Gawker: “White House Undecided On Whether To Let Republicans Walk All Over Them”

Mama Grizzly’s Alaska, or the other way around?

Sarah Palin’s new reality show, “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” premieres this Sunday on The Learning Channel. But it’s already being panned — especially by New York Daily News columnist David Hinckley.

“Whether you think Palin is America’s breath of fresh air or a lightweight opportunist, there can be no argument this show is way more Palin than Alaska,” he wrote. “If she were buying the time, she couldn’t have created a more flattering infomercial.”

Happy to be here? Raise your hands …

In this handout photo to Getty Images, members of the G-20 Economic Summit pose for their class shot. The photo was taken Friday at the fifth meeting of the G-20 group of nations in Seoul, South Korea.

Notable quotable

“President Obama is meeting with world leaders in South Korea today at the G-20 economic summit. John McCain heard ‘G-20,’ and he yelled ‘Bingo!’ ” — George Lopez

Late-night laughs

Stephen Colbert: “Wall Street hands out record bonuses. Poor people — get ready to be trickled down on.”

Jimmy Fallon: “This guy in Indonesia wrote this book about President Obama. … It’s 5,472 pages long — the thickest book in the world. The book is called ‘One of Obama’s Speeches.’ “

David Letterman: “I’ll say this — the president [George W. Bush] looks great now and is everywhere talking about his book. And he is being very candid: In one interview, he said that he used to do stupid things while he was drunk. But think about it: Who among us hasn’t had a couple of drinks and invaded Iraq?”

Political Circus: Hotties in the House

But can they deliver on that promise without cutting entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security and angering older voters?

Seniors voted last week by an almost 60-40 split for Republican House candidates, after splitting evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 midterms. And voters 65 and older made up 24 percent of those casting votes last week.

Read more about exit polling on seniors

Check out exit polls from the 2006 midterm elections

Republicans, who will control the House in the next Congress, have vowed to cut spending in the federal budget, and entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare make up more than half of the budget. Significant cuts can’t happen without addressing these programs.

Changing those programs will be nearly impossible, with advocacy powers like AARP and other seniors’ groups resisting change.

The Arena: How to fix the economy

Perry: Let states decide Social Security

GOP strategist Ron Bonjean found that out when fellow Republicans, notably President George W. Bush, pushed a plan in 2005 to privatize Social Security and implemented changes to Medicare.

The reason Social Security reform failed was because “Americans were not fully educated in what the systemic problems were,” said Bonjean, the former chief of staff to the Senate Republican conference and director of communications for then-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

“Seniors seriously objected to any attempt to change it,” he added.

And seniors resisted change again this year, opposing health care reform, polls showed. Republicans hammered the Obama administration and congressional Democrats on their health care reform law and have vowed to repeal it.

It was a message that caught on with seniors, political analyst Jennifer Donahue said.

“Health care reform played a large factor. … The Obama administration appears to have gone too far too fast on health care, and especially in the minds of older voters, who already have government health care available to them.”

She added that one reason seniors favored Republicans this cycle was because of the endless attack ads on the new law.

Statistics show that anti-health care reform advocates spent $94 million on ads nationwide this year, while the other side spent $19 million.

While repealing the health care reform law will be next to impossible, the sensitive subject is one that may keep seniors wary of Democrats, Donahue added.

Will the GOP take on entitlements?

In the meantime, don’t expect Republican leaders to start changing or slashing entitlements right away, Bonjean said.

“I don’t see it as a top priority for Republicans going into the next Congress,” he said. “I think they’ll start creating a conversation, which needs to be had. Before you try to solve a problem, it will be important for Americans to understand what the problems are.”

Their primary focus will be on the economy and “low-hanging fruit” items in the budget that can be cut.

“Republicans are going to focus on growing the economy, creating jobs, repealing the health care law and cutting nondiscretionary spending. They may look at waste, fraud and abuse within the Medicare program, but their No. 1 priority is to jump-start the economy and repeal the new health care law,” Bonjean said.

Donahue added that even if Republicans float the idea of cutting entitlement programs, they have political cover.

“I think the Republicans have a little bit of cover because they know that a [Democratic] Senate and President Obama won’t cut Medicare,” she said. “So they can try to cut it and fail and that’s their safety net.”

Eventually, though, Congress will need to tackle the growing problems with these programs, which are pressing on the country’s fiscal health.

Bonjean hinted that entitlement change won’t come until the problems get really bad. Americans don’t like to deal with problems, he said, until they are “front and center and almost in a crisis level — like the economic situation we’re in right now.”

“When Medicare and Social Security get to such a point where it will be unsustainable, I think that’s when Americans will force Congress to do something about,” he added. “That’s the way the country works.”

What can Democrats do?

“To try and attract seniors is actually to make movement towards the center,” Donahue said. “And that is a dilemma for the Democrats right now because in order to attract younger voters, they actually have to move to the left.”

Democrats in recent history have had a hard time attracting seniors, so it comes as no surprise that they would face an uphill battle in this year’s election.

“Seniors have been a problem for the Democrats for at least a decade,” CNN polling director Keating Holland said. “Seniors routinely voted Democratic in House elections in the 1970s and 1980s, but starting in 1994 they trended toward the GOP and except for 2000, that trend has held up ever since. So there is some long-term pattern going on — it’s not a recent development.”

And it was certainly seen in the 2008 presidential election, when Barack Obama lost the senior vote to Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Obama was put over the top by support from independents, younger voters and baby boomers.

“For Democrats to have succeeded with older voters this cycle, they would have really had to court them,” Donahue said. “They didn’t do that. Where Republicans I think had the most energy and seemed like the most effective agent of change this cycle.”

CNN’s Rebecca Sinderbrand and Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

GOP walks budget-cutting line with seniors

When the Republicans gained majority power in the House of Representatives Tuesday, the man poised to lead them was brought to tears.

That evening, Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, who will soon become the new speaker of the House, told supporters, “I spent my whole life chasing the American dream.”

With tears forming and his voice quavering, Boehner recounted details of his life growing up in southwestern Ohio: “I started out mopping floors, waiting tables and tending bar at my dad’s tavern. I put myself through school, working every rotten job there was and every night shift I could find.”

While it’s a story of humble beginnings — Boehner worked as a janitor in college — it’s a long way from the image many have of him today, as a Washington insider known for a ubiquitous tan, an unstoppable smoking habit and fiery speeches on the House floor.

One of Boehner’s friends, Jerry Vanden Eynden, who has known the 60-year-old, 10-term congressman since seventh grade, told CNN Boehner’s career continues to surprise childhood friends.

“It was nothing that any of us would ever have expected,” said Vanden Eynden, president of a Cincinnati, Ohio, candle company. “We would have expected him more to be successful in business, the way he was, more than get into the political field.”

“I can’t say that there was anything that made him outstanding to me in grade school. He was just one of the guys,” Vanden Eynden said.

Boehner is the second of 12 children.

“The thing I remember most about going to his house was there was always diapers on the line,” recalled Vanden Eynden. “No matter what time of year it was, they were either outside or inside, but his mom always had cloth diapers. There were so many kids running around.”

Who is John Boehner?

Boehner is the first in his family to graduate from college. Earning a degree in business from Xavier University, Boehner eventually became president of Nucite Sales, a plastics and packaging company. Boehner began his political career in the 1980s, serving in the Ohio state legislature. He won his first congressional race in 1990.

Twenty years later, longtime friends reject the idea that he has turned into a Washington elitist who’s too chummy with lobbyists.

Dan Danner, president and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business and himself a registered lobbyist, has known Boehner since he first ran for Congress. He said the image of an insider as someone who is “co-opted by the system” and becomes “someone that you weren’t when you came here” doesn’t describe the congressman.

“You know, I think he’s still John Boehner,” he said.

“There’s no substitute for having run a business,” Danner said. “It’s completely different if you’ve only signed the back of a paycheck and you’ve never signed the front.”

During Boehner’s time in Congress, he’s also earned a reputation among reporters and colleagues as having a laid-back demeanor and a penchant for wisecracks. On Thursday, when questioned by ABC’s Diane Sawyer about the possibility of a “Slurpee summit” with President Obama, Boehner responded, “I don’t know about a Slurpee. How about a glass of merlot?”

“We were angels, and that’s the way we’ll keep it,” said Vanden Eynden when asked if Boehner learned to joke around while attending an all-boys high school in Ohio.

And while friends don’t recall Boehner as someone who easily sheds tears, they say the recent public displays of emotion are genuine.

“It’s sincere,” said Vanden Eynden. “I think he’s seeing that he has a chance to realize that dream, that goal that he put out there.”

Friends say Boehner not D.C. ‘insider’

Fightin’ words

Radio host/jack-of-all-trades Ryan Seacrest lashed out on his website at Meghan McCain after she criticized President Obama’s decision to appear on Seacrest’s show before Tuesday’s election.

Seacrest fought back on his nationally syndicated radio show. “She thinks ["On Air with Ryan Seacrest"] is just lowbrow,” he said. “I just want to be clear — it is the lowbrow show she wanted to be on twice to come promote her stuff.”

As he says on “American Idol” — Seacrest out.

Like a scene from ‘Gone with the Wind’

From Friday’s White House pool report from political website The Daily Caller: “At 9:48 POTUS and FLOTUS exited the south Portico and boarded Marine One. POTUS wore no coat over his suit, but FLOTUS wore a fashionable tan or light brown coat. POTUS put his hand on FLOTUS’ back as they walked and looked over at her, appearing to say something. And with that, the first couple was off for southeast Asia.” (The abbreviations stand for “president of the United States” and “first lady of the United States.”)

Watch where you put that hatchet

Former Delaware Senate rivals Chris Coons and Christine O’Donnell took part Thursday in a time-honored tradition in the state by burying the hatchet — literally, The Delaware News Journal reports.

Time to make the coffee

The New York Daily News reports on former President George W. Bush’s daily ritual since leaving the White House, saying his “internal alarm clock” makes him wake up before 5 a.m. And he’s taken on a more domestic role by making coffee for his wife, Laura. When outside, it’s all adventure: “He hits dirt-bike trails around Dallas regularly.”

First chef of New York?

New York governor-elect Andrew Cuomo’s girlfriend — cooking sensation Sandra Lee — won’t be taking on the title of first lady or any official duties, the Daily News reports. Cuomo’s staff says Lee “would never expect any taxpayer dollar to support the contributions she makes nor would she want to burden the state in any way.”

Notable quotable

“Tuesday night, voters completely rejected the efforts of a charismatic African-American. … Rick Fox is off ‘Dancing with the Stars.’” — NBC’s Jay Leno

The picture you need to see

From Getty Images: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton receives a Hongi (Maori greeting) during a welcome ceremony at New Zealand’s Parliament on Thursday.

Headline of the day

From Reuters:“Putin to Bush: My dog bigger than yours”

Late-night laughs

David Letterman: “[Sarah Palin] says she wants limited government. … Does she mean fewer elected officials? Or few elected officials who will resign in the middle of their term? I think limited government will be perfect for her limited abilities.”

Jon Stewart mocking the White House press corps: “Uh, Mr. President, Tom Patterson, UPI. Do you suck? Quick follow-up: do you suck so bad you don’t even know how sucky you are? I would like your answer in the form of ‘you suck.’”

Jimmy Fallon: “In his new book, George W. Bush says he considered dropping Dick Cheney from the 2004 ticket because he wanted to demonstrate he was in charge — not Cheney. But then Cheney nixed the idea, so it went back to normal. He didn’t do it.”

Political Circus: McCain vs. Seacrest

“I want us to talk substantively about how to move the American people’s agenda forward,” he said.

Obama wants to discuss the future of the Bush-era tax cuts, he said. They’re due to expire at the end of the year, and Republicans and Democrats disagree about whether — or how — to extend them.

“We have to act in order to assure that middle-class families don’t see a big tax spike because of how the Bush tax cuts have been structured,” Obama said. “It is very important that we extend those middle-class tax cuts.”

Obama wants to let the tax cuts expire on the wealthiest Americans, while most Republicans do not want to single out the rich for different treatment.

The president said businesses also needed “certainty” about the future.

The meeting is set for November 18, he said.

It follows elections Tuesday in which Obama’s Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives and lost seats in the Senate. Current members of Congress keep their jobs until the end of the year, in what’s known as the “lame-duck” session.

Obama conceded Wednesday that his party had taken a “shellacking” from the voters.

The Republican leader in the Senate has already signaled that he’s more interested in rolling back what Obama has already done than in helping him push his agenda forward.

“For the past two years, Democrat lawmakers chose to ignore the American people, so on Tuesday the American people chose new lawmakers,” Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, is set to say in an address Thursday to the Heritage Foundation, according to excerpts from his office.

“The White House has a choice: they can change course, or they can double down on a vision of government that the American people have roundly rejected,” he says.

But Obama used his brief statement after a Cabinet meeting to highlight his priorities.

He urged the lame-duck Congress not to drop the ball on an arms control agreement with Russia, saying it is neither a Republican nor a Democratic issue.

“We have negotiated with the Russians significant reductions in our nuclear arms” in the new START treaty, he said.

That has given the United States leverage over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, he argued, because “people have seen that we are serious about taking our responsibilities when it comes to non-proliferation.”

The Senate must approve international treaties for them to take effect.

Obama is also planning to meet newly elected governors from both parties, he said. He’s invited them to the White House on December 2.

The meeting will be a “terrific opportunity to hear from them … about what they’re seeing, what ideas they think Washington needs to be paying attention to. They’ve got very practical problems that they’ve got to solve,” he said, praising their “common-sense approach that the American people are looking for right now.”

Obama: Let’s move forward

Polls indicate a dissatisfied electorate may clean house — literally — by tossing out the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and possibly doing the same in the Senate.

With all predictions, including those of Democrats, signaling Republican gains, the election is considered a referendum on both the Democratic-controlled Congress and President Barack Obama’s first two years in office.

Losses by the governing party are common in the first mid-term election it faces, but the shift Tuesday could rival or match historic levels dating back decades.

Unemployment of 9.6 percent amid a slow recovery from economic recession has been the dominant issue, with Republicans accusing Obama and Democrats of pushing through expensive policies that have expanded government without solving the problem.

Obama has led Democrats in defending his record, saying steps such as the economic stimulus bill and auto industry bailout were necessary to prevent a depression, while health care reform and Wall Street reform will lay the foundation for sustainable future growth.

As voting day approached, voter anger appeared to tune out the Democratic arguments. Conservative groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce funded attack ads that skewered increased spending under Obama and the health care reform bill he championed, while labor unions and traditional Democratic donors backed messaging that warned a GOP victory would bring back Republican deregulation and policies that caused the recession.

The long and bitter campaign season will cost more than $3.5 billion to be the most expensive non-presidential vote ever, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Republicans need to win an additional 39 seats to claim the House majority, and 10 more Senate seats to overtake Democrats there.

With around 100 of the 435 House seats at stake considered “in play,” or competitive, the anti-Democratic mood is predicted to result in big Republican gains.

Video: Does Tea Party help or hurt GOP?

Video: Van Hollen: Pundits will be proven wrong

Video: GOP targets Democrats in New York

On the Senate side, where 37 of the 100 seats are being contested, the majority will be decided by key races in Nevada, Washington and a few other states where Democratic incumbents face strong challenges.

A new national poll released Monday showed the number of Americans who say things are going badly in the country, at 75 percent, is higher than it has been on the eve of any mid-term election since the question was first asked in the mid-1970s.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey also indicates that the economy remains, by far, the top issue on the minds of Americans, more than all other major issues combined, including terrorism, health care, illegal immigrants and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In addition, the rise of the conservative Tea Party movement has added a new element to the election cycle, roiling Republican races by boosting little-known and inexperienced candidates to victory over mainstream figures in primaries across the country.

Tuesday’s vote will show how many of the so-called Tea Party candidates can win in a general election, but no matter the final tally, the result is expected to shift the Republican agenda to the right.

That means little chance of compromise or bipartisan approaches on major issues, observers warn.

Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who worked for the last Republican House speaker, Dennis Hastert, put it bluntly: “It’s been a hostile atmosphere, but it will be hostile on nitroglycerin.”

Ohio Republican Rep. John Boehner will be the new House speaker if the GOP wins control of the chamber. He already has signaled little appetite to negotiate with the White House or congressional Democrats, saying last week that “this is not a time for compromise.”

Boehner and other conservatives say the top priorities must be spending cuts to try to balance the budget and job creation to spur the economy. However, they also advocate extending Bush-era tax cuts for everyone at a cost of $4 trillion over the next decade.

In the Senate, legislative gridlock is likely if Republicans strengthen their current minority of 41 seats. Obama and Democrats accuse Senate Republicans of using obstruction tactics as a political tool, showing the distrust and animosity that already exists.

Democrats are also wary of a recent comment by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who told the National Journal, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

The first test of a new relationship will come in mid-November when Congress convenes a post-election lame-duck session to try to clear unfinished legislation before the newly elected Congress convenes in January. Among other issues, lawmakers must decide whether and how to extend Bush-era tax cuts.

Voters on Tuesday also will decide governors’ races in 37 of the 50 states, with the outcome potentially having an influence on redistricting based on the results of the 2010 census.

Every 10 years, the states redraw House district lines to reflect population shifts. Some states gain more House seats due to population growth, while others lose seats due to declines.

In most cases, state legislatures draw the lines and governors have the power to approve or veto that map. Governors also can influence whether any loss or gain of seats in their state involves districts represented by Republicans or Democrats.

The list of states that will gain or lose seats is released in December. However, Election Data Services issued estimates based on preliminary census figures that indicated Texas will gain four seats, Florida will gain two, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will each gain one, while Ohio and New York will lose two seats, and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will each lose one.

CNN’s Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh, Paul Steinhauser and Jessica Yellin contributed to this report.

A long, nasty campaign comes to an end

Cicilline, the mayor of Providence, is up by double digits in the polls, holds a fundraising advantage against his competitor, Republican John Loughlin II, and has received a slew of endorsements.

And he has the help from the Democratic big guns. On Monday, President Obama stumped in the state for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, lending support for Cicilline, among others.

If elected, Cicilline, 49, would be one of four openly gay members of Congress — joining the ranks of Democratic Reps. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Jared Polis of Colorado (assuming they win their re-election bids).

Robin Brand, deputy executive director of the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, said her nonpartisan political action committee decided to endorse the mayor mainly because of his leadership track record.

Video: Democrat goes off on Obama

“He had been a successful state legislator, successful mayor and really came out of the starting gate as the front-runner in this race,” Brand said. “He is a really strong campaigner.”

But he still has work to do, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The report deems the district “Lean Democrat.” It previously changed its ranking in September from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” after Cicilline was forced to acknowledge that the city had “improperly given him pay raises as mayor between 2006 and 2009.”

It’s a point that Loughlin was able to capitalize on.

“David Cicilline illegally collected more than $20,000 in salary that he was not entitled to — and he only gave it back because he got caught,” Loughlin said at a press conference last week. “If we can’t trust him to watch our money in city hall, how can we trust him to watch our money in Washington?”

Read more of Loughlin’s comments

Cook Political Report points out that while Loughlin has begun to rip into Cicilline’s record as mayor, “Cicilline still enters the homestretch in reasonably good shape. … Loughlin doesn’t have a ton of money left, and Cicilline is ahead anywhere from one to two dozen points in public polling.”

Brand said that Cicilline’s record on gay and lesbian issues is hardly a reason why he may appeal to a large swath of Democratic voters in the district, a seat now held by Rep. Patrick Kennedy, a liberal Democrat, who isn’t seeking re-election.

Cicilline’s “focus has been on the issues that people care about right now, which is economic development and jobs,” she said. “He has a strong reputation for building Providence’s economy and I think that focus for him has really been what has propelled him to the front of this race and put him in a really strong position to win this seat on November 2.”

The state’s largest newspaper — The Providence Journal — is also supporting him.

The paper’s endorsement reads: “Mr. Cicilline has been an honest, energetic and often innovative mayor. … He has cleansed city government of much of its reputation for corruption and hired capable people. … He has brought a level of fiscal discipline (including in relations with the city’s far too powerful public-employee unions) that has not been seen in the city for many decades.”

Read more of the endorsement

Perhaps the most likely reason that Cicilline can win, Brand added, is that voters are less likely now to care about a candidate’s sexuality because of the economic problems facing the country.

“Ultimately, voters vote for candidates who are going to help improve their lives. It doesn’t matter if you’re gay or lesbian,” she said. “If you’ve demonstrated that you’ve helped improve people’s lives on the issues they care about, our research shows that being openly gay or lesbian is really secondary to that.”

And that’s certainly the case for Laure Rondeau, an elderly Catholic woman in Providence, who told NPR that sexuality doesn’t play a factor in her vote.

“[Sexual orientation] doesn’t bother me at all,” Rondeau said in the interview. “He’s been a good mayor of Providence, and I think he’d do well in Congress.”

In many ways, his sexuality may be a plus to some voters angry at Washington’s backroom deals and candidates deemed distant, out of touch and dishonest, Brand said.

“It’s clear that it may not be easy to run as openly gay or lesbian, but they are being open and honest about who they are,” she said. “Voters really respect that, and I think that, in some ways, can really be an advantage especially in times like this.”

Across the country, another openly gay House candidate — backed by the Victory Fund — is hoping to ride that same wave.

Steve Pougnet, 47, the Democratic mayor of Palm Springs, California, is running against Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack in the state’s 45th Congressional District.

While the incumbent’s poll numbers are high and fundraising dollars continue to pour in, political observers note that she faces a challenge this year from Pougnet — a well-liked politician who has a husband and two children.

The Cook Political Report rates the district “Likely Republican.”

“Bono Mack remains strong here because she is one of the most moderate members of the California delegation,” according to Cook’s analysis. “Now, they finally have a credible candidate in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who is receiving the kind of national support that past nominees have not enjoyed.”

The report goes on to say that Pougnet remains a “heavy underdog” because of the GOP lawmaker’s moderate voting record. (She was one of eight Republicans to vote for Democrats’ “cap and trade” energy bill.)

Gay candidate a front-runner in House race

“I think they might have predicted our demise a little too soon,” an energetic Chet Edwards tells the crowd to a round of cheers.

A young volunteer turns to a friend and says he’s eager to help the long-term Democratic congressman because, “he needs all the help he can get.”

The dozens of supporters standing in the room know Rep. Chet Edwards is in the toughest fight of his political life.

Edwards has long defied the political odds in Texas — a Democrat repeatedly elected to Congress since 1990 in one of the most conservative districts in the country.

The district includes Waco and Bryan-College Station, home to Baylor and Texas A&M universities, both bastions of conservatism.

In 2004, John Kerry received 30 percent of the vote in Edwards’ congressional district. In 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama managed 32 percent. Each time, Chet Edwards was elected back to Congress.

Edwards is often called an “endangered species,” as many conservative Democrats have disappeared from the political landscape of Texas in the last 20 years.

His political survival skills even catapulted him to the shortlist of potential vice presidential nominees for President Obama in 2008.

Now, Edwards’ opponent doesn’t miss an opportunity to link Edwards to the unpopular president and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Republican challenger, Bill Flores, paints Edwards as part of the Washington establishment.

“Since Nancy Pelosi took over, Edwards votes with her 96 percent of the time,” said one Flores campaign advertisement.

Edwards said he feels comfortable as an underdog. “I think voters have known me for years and they’ve known I’ve always been independent.”

Edwards sounds like a Republican in his campaign commercials, criticizing Democrats for passing health care reform and for being too liberal.

“I think Democrats in Washington have tried to do too much,” he said. “I wish some of them had focused more on our economy.”

Edwards bills himself as an independent voice in tune with the conservative side of his constituents. It won him the endorsements of the National Rifle Association, the Texas Farm Bureau and many military veterans groups.

But the intense anti-incumbent, anti-Washington mood is blowing swiftly across the rural Texas prairie that makes up much of Edwards’ congressional district.

The lunchtime crowd at the Bunkhouse BBQ joint in Clifton, Texas, symbolizes the struggles Edwards is facing this election year.

Burl and Dianne Hammons describe themselves as independent conservatives who’ve supported Chet Edwards in the past.

They have a son in the military and the congressman’s support of military issues often won them over. But this year, the Hammons are voting for Republican Bill Flores, even though they admit they don’t know much about him.

“He’s [Edwards] done a lot of good, but he’s through. He’s finished. He’s moving into the Pelosi area. … That doesn’t get my vote,” Burl Hammons said.

The last month of the campaign promises to be intense. The Edwards campaign accused Flores of supporting plans to privatize veterans health care and Social Security.

Flores said that’s not true but said he does support giving veterans the choice to use private doctors at government cost if they don’t want to travel to a VA hospital.

According to Flores, those attacks show Edwards is in more trouble than he’s ever been before and the Flores campaign said this is the first time the “right kind” of Republican opponent has matched up against Edwards.

Flores grew up in the Texas Panhandle, graduated from Texas A&M and spent 30 years working in the energy industry. This is his first run for public office.

Flores’ attempts to paint Edwards as a Washington liberal appears to be working.

Back at the Bunkhouse BBQ joint, Kim Watkins remembers all the votes she cast for Edwards, but said the congressman has swung to the left.

“He’s a hometown boy — he’s been around a long time, but I think the Democratic roots are showing up a little more,” said Watkins.

The Edwards campaign said it’s starting to cut into Flores’ lead. According to the campaign’s internal polling, Flores had a 10-point lead in mid-September. Their poll this week says the congressman has cut the lead to four points.

But the Flores campaign fired back with its own internal polling taken September 23 that shows Flores with a 19-point lead.

Edwards is used to this story. He often jokes that his Republican opponents start measuring the drapes too soon.

“They’ve written my obituary in so many elections over the years,” he said.

Texas Dem fights for survival in GOP hotbed