Category Archives: economy

Earmarks get ax from GOP senators

Washington (CNN) — The GOP caucus in the Senate agreed Tuesday night to ban earmarks, a policy House Republicans already have in place and are expected to keep in the new Congress.

The idea of prohibiting members from designating funding for specific projects in their states or districts is popular with reform-minded deficit hawks, but it has traditionally been opposed by some congressional veterans trying to steer funds to constituencies back home.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, a longtime defender of earmarks, announced Monday that he would vote for the ban.

“I’m not wild about turning over more spending authority to the executive branch, but I have come to share the view of most Americans that our nation is at a crossroads,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. The “only way we will be able to turn the corner and save our future is if elected leaders like me make the kinds of difficult decisions voters are clearly asking us to make.”

But McConnell also expressed his own personal conflict on the issue.

McConnell backs banning earmarks

“Make no mistake, I know the good that has come from the projects I have helped support throughout my state. I don’t apologize for them,” McConnell said. “But there is simply no doubt that the abuse of this practice has caused Americans to view it as a symbol of the wasted and the out-of-control spending that every Republican in Washington is determined to fight.”

President Barack Obama responded with a statement welcoming McConnell’s “decision to join me and members of both parties who support cracking down on wasteful earmark spending, which we can’t afford during these tough economic times.”

But the president added, “We can’t stop with earmarks as they represent only part of the problem.”

As Republicans voted in their caucus, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri said she wants the full Senate to vote on a binding moratorium that would include Democrats, too.

“The arguments against this, every single one of them, I just don’t think pass the smell test,” she said about senators who oppose a ban.

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, later indicated disagreement with McCaskill. Reid defended earmarks Tuesday, telling Capitol Hill reporters he has “an obligation to the people of Nevada … not to some bureaucrat with green eyeshades.”

“I think (an earmark ban is) a tremendous step backward,” Reid said. “It just gives more power to the executive. … I am not in favor of delegating my constitutional responsibility to the White House.”

Nevertheless, McCaskill’s push puts pressure on Senate Democrats, many of whom agree with Reid, to get behind a ban, which has taken on increased political significance in light of Tea Party gains in the midterm elections.

McCaskill is working with Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma on an earmark-ban amendment they might add to a food safety bill that’s expected to be on the floor later this week. She is working with Democratic leaders to schedule a vote.

The ban would come in the form of a change in Senate rules, an aide to Coburn explained. Senators would be allowed to raise points of order against bills with earmarks, which would be binding.

“If these things (earmarks) are so good, will someone tell me how they’re decided,” a spirited McCaskill asked reporters. “Little cards getting handed around in caucus. There is not an open process. Who decides who gets the most money and on what basis is that decided?”

McConnell, who unexpectedly lent his support to the ban, said in a speech this month to the Heritage Foundation that “you could eliminate every congressional earmark and you would save no money.”

That’s because earmarks don’t represent extra spending. They represent spending that lawmakers have already approved for federal agencies. And earmarks typically account for less than 1 percent of the budget.

For the earmark ban to reduce spending, “you have to lower the spending authorizations by the same amount,” said Maya MacGuineas, fiscal policy director at the New America Foundation.

It’s typically up to federal agencies to decide how their money gets allocated to projects in states, cities and counties, and those decisions are made through an application-and-review process, except when earmarks are involved.

Definitions of earmarks vary widely, and agencies catalog them differently. But typically an earmark is defined as a slice of agency money that a lawmaker or the president requests be set aside for a specific project.

So earmarks are not subject to the same review process, and they are often slipped into unrelated spending bills at the last minute without most people’s knowledge.

The notion that earmarks are wasteful bridges to nowhere is misleading.

Residents of a state or city may not view federal dollars earmarked to help them improve their transit system as a waste.

The problem is that the earmark system is based on “political muscle rather than merit,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan spending watchdog group.

The earmark issue is one of several the lame-duck session of the Democratic Congress is expected to tackle.

The session convened Monday, with members preparing to make decisions on a host of contentious issues that could have major political ramifications for Obama and the incoming Republican House majority.

At the top of the agenda: whether to extend the Bush tax cuts for families making more than $250,000 a year. Republicans contend that failure to extend the cuts for everyone would be a mistake in a weak economy. Obama considers such a move a roughly $700 billion budget-busting mistake, but he recently suggested he’s willing to compromise.

If Congress fails to act, all the cuts will expire at the end of the year.

In addition to the tax cuts, the lame-duck Congress also has to consider expiring cuts in the estate tax and decide what to do about a bill that is keeping the government running but is set to expire December 3.

Other items on the agenda include:

– A possible repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy barring gays and lesbians from serving openly in the armed forces.

– Ratification of the nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.

– A child nutrition bill backed by first lady Michelle Obama.

– The Dream Act, which would create a path to citizenship for young illegal immigrants if they attend college or serve in the military.

CNN’s Alan Silverleib, Dana Bash, Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Earmarks get ax from GOP senators

Political Circus: Kumar’s back

Washington (CNN) — Politics is serious business — but not all of the time. From the halls of Congress to the campaign trail, there’s always something that gets a laugh. Here are some of the things you might have missed:

Take 2

Actor Kal Penn, better known as Kumar from the “Harold & Kumar” movies is back at the White House, ABC News reports. He left this summer to film another H&K movie.

The actor, whose real name is Kalpen Modi, began his duties on Monday as the associate director in the Office of Public Engagement. He served in a similar role prior to heading off to the movie set.

Who knew he had time to write another book?

President Obama’s children’s book, “Of Thee I Sing: A Letter to My Daughters” has been released.

The 31-page book, featuring illustrations of his daughters and his dog Bo, begins: “Have I told you lately how wonderful you are? How the sound of your feet running from afar brings dancing rhythms to my day?”

Proceeds from the book, which has a suggested retail price of $17.99, will be donated to a scholarship fund for children of fallen and disabled soldiers.

Notable quotable

“Hey have you heard that President Obama’s picture book for kids comes out tomorrow? That’s when you know things have changed right? When Bush writes a 500-page memoir and Obama hands in a coloring book” — Jimmy Fallon

No tea (conspiracy) for me

Bristol Palin is knocking down claims that there is a conspiracy by Tea Party activists to keep her on ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars.” She has consistently received low scores throughout the show and yet remains in the top four.

Bristol Palin was quick to dismiss the notion that she’s only there because of her mother’s supporters. In an interview with E! News, she said “Think about all the people who hate my mom!”

I’ll have what the POTUS is having

CNN’s Eatocracy blog takes a look at just how first class the food is aboard Air Force One — complete with pictures and a critique from senior photojournalist Mark Walz.

Who knew there was an Air Force One tobasco sauce?

Picture you need to see

From Getty Images: Members of the U.S. Park Police arrest gay rights activist and former Army Lt. Dan Choi, who handcuffed himself to the fence of the White House during a protest Monday.

The protesters are calling on the Obama administration and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to keep their promise on repealing ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ — the law banning gays and lesbians from openly serving in the military.

Headline of the day

“The Economy of the Aging Sex Kitten”

Late-night laughs

Conan O’Brien: “Recent reports suggest that passages from former President George W. Bush’s new book may have been lifted from other books … Yes especially the parts about Dumbledore and Voldemort.”

Jon Stewart: “[Cindy McCain is] against what ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ does but she’s for ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ No wonder they have so many houses! They need them to keep all their different beliefs in them.”

Jimmy Kimmell: “Sarah Palin’s reality show premiered last night on TLC. Huge ratings — 5 million viewers. It was the biggest premiere in the history of that network. If you didn’t see it, it’s basically ‘Jon and Kate’ plus about four meets ‘The Deadliest Catch’”

Political Circus: Kumar’s back

GOP walks budget-cutting line with seniors

Washington (CNN) — Republicans rode a tidal wave of senior support into control of the House, promising to cut government spending and restore fiscal sanity to Washington.

But can they deliver on that promise without cutting entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security and angering older voters?

Seniors voted last week by an almost 60-40 split for Republican House candidates, after splitting evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 midterms. And voters 65 and older made up 24 percent of those casting votes last week.

Read more about exit polling on seniors

Check out exit polls from the 2006 midterm elections

Republicans, who will control the House in the next Congress, have vowed to cut spending in the federal budget, and entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare make up more than half of the budget. Significant cuts can’t happen without addressing these programs.

Changing those programs will be nearly impossible, with advocacy powers like AARP and other seniors’ groups resisting change.

The Arena: How to fix the economy

Perry: Let states decide Social Security

GOP strategist Ron Bonjean found that out when fellow Republicans, notably President George W. Bush, pushed a plan in 2005 to privatize Social Security and implemented changes to Medicare.

The reason Social Security reform failed was because “Americans were not fully educated in what the systemic problems were,” said Bonjean, the former chief of staff to the Senate Republican conference and director of communications for then-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

“Seniors seriously objected to any attempt to change it,” he added.

And seniors resisted change again this year, opposing health care reform, polls showed. Republicans hammered the Obama administration and congressional Democrats on their health care reform law and have vowed to repeal it.

It was a message that caught on with seniors, political analyst Jennifer Donahue said.

“Health care reform played a large factor. … The Obama administration appears to have gone too far too fast on health care, and especially in the minds of older voters, who already have government health care available to them.”

She added that one reason seniors favored Republicans this cycle was because of the endless attack ads on the new law.

Statistics show that anti-health care reform advocates spent $94 million on ads nationwide this year, while the other side spent $19 million.

While repealing the health care reform law will be next to impossible, the sensitive subject is one that may keep seniors wary of Democrats, Donahue added.

Will the GOP take on entitlements?

In the meantime, don’t expect Republican leaders to start changing or slashing entitlements right away, Bonjean said.

“I don’t see it as a top priority for Republicans going into the next Congress,” he said. “I think they’ll start creating a conversation, which needs to be had. Before you try to solve a problem, it will be important for Americans to understand what the problems are.”

Their primary focus will be on the economy and “low-hanging fruit” items in the budget that can be cut.

“Republicans are going to focus on growing the economy, creating jobs, repealing the health care law and cutting nondiscretionary spending. They may look at waste, fraud and abuse within the Medicare program, but their No. 1 priority is to jump-start the economy and repeal the new health care law,” Bonjean said.

Donahue added that even if Republicans float the idea of cutting entitlement programs, they have political cover.

“I think the Republicans have a little bit of cover because they know that a [Democratic] Senate and President Obama won’t cut Medicare,” she said. “So they can try to cut it and fail and that’s their safety net.”

Eventually, though, Congress will need to tackle the growing problems with these programs, which are pressing on the country’s fiscal health.

Bonjean hinted that entitlement change won’t come until the problems get really bad. Americans don’t like to deal with problems, he said, until they are “front and center and almost in a crisis level — like the economic situation we’re in right now.”

“When Medicare and Social Security get to such a point where it will be unsustainable, I think that’s when Americans will force Congress to do something about,” he added. “That’s the way the country works.”

What can Democrats do?

“To try and attract seniors is actually to make movement towards the center,” Donahue said. “And that is a dilemma for the Democrats right now because in order to attract younger voters, they actually have to move to the left.”

Democrats in recent history have had a hard time attracting seniors, so it comes as no surprise that they would face an uphill battle in this year’s election.

“Seniors have been a problem for the Democrats for at least a decade,” CNN polling director Keating Holland said. “Seniors routinely voted Democratic in House elections in the 1970s and 1980s, but starting in 1994 they trended toward the GOP and except for 2000, that trend has held up ever since. So there is some long-term pattern going on — it’s not a recent development.”

And it was certainly seen in the 2008 presidential election, when Barack Obama lost the senior vote to Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Obama was put over the top by support from independents, younger voters and baby boomers.

“For Democrats to have succeeded with older voters this cycle, they would have really had to court them,” Donahue said. “They didn’t do that. Where Republicans I think had the most energy and seemed like the most effective agent of change this cycle.”

CNN’s Rebecca Sinderbrand and Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

GOP walks budget-cutting line with seniors

Pelosi running for minority leader

Washington (CNN) — Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday she will run for minority leader in the new Congress, even as some moderate and conservative Democrats insisted she should step aside.

“Many of our colleagues have called with their recommendations on how to continue our fight for the middle class, and have encouraged me to run for House Democratic Leader,” she said in a written statement. “Based on those discussions, and driven by the urgency of protecting health care reform, Wall Street reform, and Social Security and Medicare, I have decided to run.”

Pelosi initially announced her intentions via Twitter.

In the wake of Tuesday’s Republican takeover of the House, Democrats will move into the minority positions in the new Congress, which convenes in January.

Shortly after Pelosi’s announcement, House Majority Whip James Clyburn announced that he would be running for minority whip. Pelosi’s No. 2 man, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer — who is widely considered to be more moderate — will “spend the next few days talking to [House] members and getting their thoughts on him being minority whip,” according to his spokeswoman, Katie Grant.

A senior Democratic source told CNN that Hoyer is “in a nice way saying he is going to run against Clyburn.”

Moderate Democratic Rep. Dan Boren of Oklahoma was the latest to urge Pelosi to step aside and not run for House minority leader. He said he would support a more centrist candidate.

“I cannot in good conscience support Nancy Pelosi as our leader,” Boren told CNN. “I think that it is important for the Democratic Party to move in a new direction for the sake of our country. Democrats and Republicans need leaders who are going to work together.”

Boren’s public pressure for Pelosi to go follows similar comments from Democratic Reps. Heath Schuler of North Carolina and Jim Matheson of Utah, who also have said they would prefer a new, more moderate Democratic leader.

“I think based on the outcome of this election, we should all acknowledge what the American people said — and they are looking for change. And I think when you, as a political party, suffer losses of historic proportions, it makes sense to change things up,” Matheson told CNN. “Therefore, I don’t think she should be running for leader.”

Rep. Jason Altmire, a moderate Democrat from a conservative district in western Pennsylvania, agreed. “I am not voting for Nancy Pelosi,” he said.

“I don’t get the sense that Speaker Pelosi understands what happened on Tuesday. We lost middle America. The Democratic party got crushed,” Altmire told CNN.

He noted that many of his fellow Democrats in districts near his lost their seats.

Despite his opposition, Altmire, who voted against major pieces of Democratic legislation, including the health care bill, said Pelosi will easily be victorious in her quest to be minority leader.

But Democratic Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. of Illinois said he would support Pelosi’s bid. “We’re in a political storm, but we don’t need to adopt an ‘any leader in a storm’ mentality,” Jackson said in a statement issued Friday. After Tuesday’s losses, moderate Democrats are now a very small part of the Democratic caucus. The bigger question, according to multiple Democratic sources, is what Pelosi’s fellow progressives want her to do. Americans United for Change, a progressive political organization, sent an e-mail notice to its members Friday morning asking them to send personal notes to Pelosi urging her to stay.

“Make sure she knows that we will support her,” said the e-mail.

“If she runs, she will win,” said one senior Democratic source.

A progressive Democrat told CNN he had talked to many of his colleagues about the situation in the past few days.

“It’s fair to say that for most progressives, their visceral place was that Nancy deserves to be the leader if she wants to be, but no one would have burst into tears if she decided not to,” said the congressman, who did not want to go on the record in order to protect private conversations.

The Pelosi supporter said she should not be blamed for the losses. Rather the setback was the result of a bad economy and, the supporter said, an ineffective job by the White House in selling Democratic achievements.

While Pelosi’s tireless fundraising has built a reservoir of support among Democratic lawmakers, several sources within the party said there are a number of progressive Democrats also who do not want her to run. Meanwhile, Rep. John Yarmuth, a Kentucky Democrat who had been a staunch supporter of Pelosi, told a local television station that he wants Pelosi to step down as Democratic leader.

“I know that there is some thought that Nancy Pelosi may stay around,” Yarmuth said Thursday. “As good a leader as she has been, I don’t think she’s the right leader to take us forward.”

Shuler is considering challenging Pelosi if she runs, according to a number of Democratic sources. Because of the makeup of the Democratic caucus, few think he would win.

Several Democratic sources say they worry about this dragging out, especially given how public the Democrats’ dispute over Pelosi’s future is becoming.

On Thursday, Pelosi told the Huffington Post that she is getting a positive response from Democratic lawmakers because she has “kept the caucus together” and increased Democratic numbers in 2006 and 2008.

Matheson told CNN one of the political concerns is that it will be harder to recruit candidates to run in 2012 with Pelosi as the Democratic leader — especially those who just lost and may want to try to get their old seats back.

CNN’s Evan Glass contributed to this report.

Pelosi running for minority leader

2012 Senate battle already under way

(CNN) — Three days after Democrats took a whipping in the House in the midterm elections, jockeying has already begun in the next battle for the Senate, with Democrats — and even some Republicans — already feeling the heat.

Some lawmakers are already quietly discussing whether to run for re-election in two years. Thirty-three Senate seats are up for grabs in 2012, with 23 of those belonging to Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them.

It’s doubtful that the political climate will be as friendly in 2012 to Democrats as it was in 2006, when the party won back control of both the House and the Senate. Among those Democratic senators who could face challenging re-elections: Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jim Webb of Virginia, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Bill Nelson of Florida, and Sen.-elect Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

“There is no question that Democrats start the next cycle on the defensive. They’re defending more seats in some tough, red, territory,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “But at least Democrats have the advantage of time. We’re still a long way from the next elections and it’s impossible to know where the economy will be in two years.”

Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who is part of the Democrats’ coalition in the chamber, is also up for re-election. The big question is whether he’ll face one or two opponents.

But it’s not just Democrats who will be facing difficult re-elections.

While Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana survived a sex scandal in this year’s election, there’s no guarantee Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, also tainted by a sex scandal, will be as successful when he’s up for re-election in 2012. And Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who pulled an upset earlier this in year in the battle to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, will be in the Democrats’ sights next election.

But it’s not just Democrats that Republicans have to fear. The Tea Party movement successfully targeted incumbent GOP Sens. Bob Bennett of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska in this year’s primaries. While Murkowski may survive, thanks to a general election bid as a write-in candidate, the writing is on the wall for Republican lawmakers who have in the past been willing to compromise with Democrats and who may not be fiscally conservative enough for Tea Party activists.

Republican senators up for re-election who could come under attack by the Tea Party movement include, Orrin Hatch of Utah, Olympia Snowe of Maine, Richard Lugar of Indiana, Bob Corker of Tennessee, and even Brown, who received assistance from Tea Party activists in his election victory at the beginning of the year.

On Wednesday, Red State’s Erick Erickson, a CNN contributor, added Brown to his list of “Potential Tea Party Targets for 2012.” Tea Party supporters have issues with some of Brown’s votes since he was sworn in. Among national Tea Party groups, Tea Party Express took the lead this year in targeting what they call “Republicans in name only,” or RINOs.

“Hopefully the 2010 election results will cause more senators to see the light about excessive growth of government and deficit spending. So we will give them a chance to improve before we make them feel the heat in their re-election campaigns,” said Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell. “After the results this week, my guess is many senators will suddenly be more willing to adhere to conservative ideals.”

An influential conservative senator who bucked his party leadership when it came to primary battles for open Senate seats this year said he won’t be targeting fellow Republicans in the chamber in 2012.

“I have no intentions, at this point, of supporting primary challengers to any of my colleagues,” Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina told CNN’s John King on Wednesday.

“I think you may see primary challenges if our colleagues don’t do what we’ve promised as Republicans. And that’s to support constitutional limited government. I didn’t recruit any primary challengers this time. … But the people, I believe, will help us make those decisions.”

2012 Senate battle already under way

A long, nasty campaign comes to an end

Washington (CNN) — No more robocalls interrupting dinner or angry campaign ads at every TV break — the most expensive mid-term elections in history finally take place Tuesday, when voters decide who goes to Congress and governors’ offices.

Polls indicate a dissatisfied electorate may clean house — literally — by tossing out the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and possibly doing the same in the Senate.

With all predictions, including those of Democrats, signaling Republican gains, the election is considered a referendum on both the Democratic-controlled Congress and President Barack Obama’s first two years in office.

Losses by the governing party are common in the first mid-term election it faces, but the shift Tuesday could rival or match historic levels dating back decades.

Unemployment of 9.6 percent amid a slow recovery from economic recession has been the dominant issue, with Republicans accusing Obama and Democrats of pushing through expensive policies that have expanded government without solving the problem.

Obama has led Democrats in defending his record, saying steps such as the economic stimulus bill and auto industry bailout were necessary to prevent a depression, while health care reform and Wall Street reform will lay the foundation for sustainable future growth.

As voting day approached, voter anger appeared to tune out the Democratic arguments. Conservative groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce funded attack ads that skewered increased spending under Obama and the health care reform bill he championed, while labor unions and traditional Democratic donors backed messaging that warned a GOP victory would bring back Republican deregulation and policies that caused the recession.

The long and bitter campaign season will cost more than $3.5 billion to be the most expensive non-presidential vote ever, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Republicans need to win an additional 39 seats to claim the House majority, and 10 more Senate seats to overtake Democrats there.

With around 100 of the 435 House seats at stake considered “in play,” or competitive, the anti-Democratic mood is predicted to result in big Republican gains.

Video: Does Tea Party help or hurt GOP?

Video: Van Hollen: Pundits will be proven wrong

Video: GOP targets Democrats in New York

On the Senate side, where 37 of the 100 seats are being contested, the majority will be decided by key races in Nevada, Washington and a few other states where Democratic incumbents face strong challenges.

A new national poll released Monday showed the number of Americans who say things are going badly in the country, at 75 percent, is higher than it has been on the eve of any mid-term election since the question was first asked in the mid-1970s.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey also indicates that the economy remains, by far, the top issue on the minds of Americans, more than all other major issues combined, including terrorism, health care, illegal immigrants and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In addition, the rise of the conservative Tea Party movement has added a new element to the election cycle, roiling Republican races by boosting little-known and inexperienced candidates to victory over mainstream figures in primaries across the country.

Tuesday’s vote will show how many of the so-called Tea Party candidates can win in a general election, but no matter the final tally, the result is expected to shift the Republican agenda to the right.

That means little chance of compromise or bipartisan approaches on major issues, observers warn.

Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who worked for the last Republican House speaker, Dennis Hastert, put it bluntly: “It’s been a hostile atmosphere, but it will be hostile on nitroglycerin.”

Ohio Republican Rep. John Boehner will be the new House speaker if the GOP wins control of the chamber. He already has signaled little appetite to negotiate with the White House or congressional Democrats, saying last week that “this is not a time for compromise.”

Boehner and other conservatives say the top priorities must be spending cuts to try to balance the budget and job creation to spur the economy. However, they also advocate extending Bush-era tax cuts for everyone at a cost of $4 trillion over the next decade.

In the Senate, legislative gridlock is likely if Republicans strengthen their current minority of 41 seats. Obama and Democrats accuse Senate Republicans of using obstruction tactics as a political tool, showing the distrust and animosity that already exists.

Democrats are also wary of a recent comment by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who told the National Journal, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

The first test of a new relationship will come in mid-November when Congress convenes a post-election lame-duck session to try to clear unfinished legislation before the newly elected Congress convenes in January. Among other issues, lawmakers must decide whether and how to extend Bush-era tax cuts.

Voters on Tuesday also will decide governors’ races in 37 of the 50 states, with the outcome potentially having an influence on redistricting based on the results of the 2010 census.

Every 10 years, the states redraw House district lines to reflect population shifts. Some states gain more House seats due to population growth, while others lose seats due to declines.

In most cases, state legislatures draw the lines and governors have the power to approve or veto that map. Governors also can influence whether any loss or gain of seats in their state involves districts represented by Republicans or Democrats.

The list of states that will gain or lose seats is released in December. However, Election Data Services issued estimates based on preliminary census figures that indicated Texas will gain four seats, Florida will gain two, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will each gain one, while Ohio and New York will lose two seats, and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will each lose one.

CNN’s Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh, Paul Steinhauser and Jessica Yellin contributed to this report.

A long, nasty campaign comes to an end

Gay candidate a front-runner in House race

Washington (CNN) — In a year when Democrats are widely considered politically handicapped, openly gay House candidate David Cicilline has bucked the trend in his race to represent Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District.

Cicilline, the mayor of Providence, is up by double digits in the polls, holds a fundraising advantage against his competitor, Republican John Loughlin II, and has received a slew of endorsements.

And he has the help from the Democratic big guns. On Monday, President Obama stumped in the state for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, lending support for Cicilline, among others.

If elected, Cicilline, 49, would be one of four openly gay members of Congress — joining the ranks of Democratic Reps. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Jared Polis of Colorado (assuming they win their re-election bids).

Robin Brand, deputy executive director of the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, said her nonpartisan political action committee decided to endorse the mayor mainly because of his leadership track record.

Video: Democrat goes off on Obama

“He had been a successful state legislator, successful mayor and really came out of the starting gate as the front-runner in this race,” Brand said. “He is a really strong campaigner.”

But he still has work to do, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The report deems the district “Lean Democrat.” It previously changed its ranking in September from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” after Cicilline was forced to acknowledge that the city had “improperly given him pay raises as mayor between 2006 and 2009.”

It’s a point that Loughlin was able to capitalize on.

“David Cicilline illegally collected more than $20,000 in salary that he was not entitled to — and he only gave it back because he got caught,” Loughlin said at a press conference last week. “If we can’t trust him to watch our money in city hall, how can we trust him to watch our money in Washington?”

Read more of Loughlin’s comments

Cook Political Report points out that while Loughlin has begun to rip into Cicilline’s record as mayor, “Cicilline still enters the homestretch in reasonably good shape. … Loughlin doesn’t have a ton of money left, and Cicilline is ahead anywhere from one to two dozen points in public polling.”

Brand said that Cicilline’s record on gay and lesbian issues is hardly a reason why he may appeal to a large swath of Democratic voters in the district, a seat now held by Rep. Patrick Kennedy, a liberal Democrat, who isn’t seeking re-election.

Cicilline’s “focus has been on the issues that people care about right now, which is economic development and jobs,” she said. “He has a strong reputation for building Providence’s economy and I think that focus for him has really been what has propelled him to the front of this race and put him in a really strong position to win this seat on November 2.”

The state’s largest newspaper — The Providence Journal — is also supporting him.

The paper’s endorsement reads: “Mr. Cicilline has been an honest, energetic and often innovative mayor. … He has cleansed city government of much of its reputation for corruption and hired capable people. … He has brought a level of fiscal discipline (including in relations with the city’s far too powerful public-employee unions) that has not been seen in the city for many decades.”

Read more of the endorsement

Perhaps the most likely reason that Cicilline can win, Brand added, is that voters are less likely now to care about a candidate’s sexuality because of the economic problems facing the country.

Mr. Cicilline has been an honest, energetic and often innovative mayor.
–The Providence Journal endorsement

“Ultimately, voters vote for candidates who are going to help improve their lives. It doesn’t matter if you’re gay or lesbian,” she said. “If you’ve demonstrated that you’ve helped improve people’s lives on the issues they care about, our research shows that being openly gay or lesbian is really secondary to that.”

And that’s certainly the case for Laure Rondeau, an elderly Catholic woman in Providence, who told NPR that sexuality doesn’t play a factor in her vote.

“[Sexual orientation] doesn’t bother me at all,” Rondeau said in the interview. “He’s been a good mayor of Providence, and I think he’d do well in Congress.”

In many ways, his sexuality may be a plus to some voters angry at Washington’s backroom deals and candidates deemed distant, out of touch and dishonest, Brand said.

“It’s clear that it may not be easy to run as openly gay or lesbian, but they are being open and honest about who they are,” she said. “Voters really respect that, and I think that, in some ways, can really be an advantage especially in times like this.”

Across the country, another openly gay House candidate — backed by the Victory Fund — is hoping to ride that same wave.

Steve Pougnet, 47, the Democratic mayor of Palm Springs, California, is running against Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack in the state’s 45th Congressional District.

While the incumbent’s poll numbers are high and fundraising dollars continue to pour in, political observers note that she faces a challenge this year from Pougnet — a well-liked politician who has a husband and two children.

The Cook Political Report rates the district “Likely Republican.”

“Bono Mack remains strong here because she is one of the most moderate members of the California delegation,” according to Cook’s analysis. “Now, they finally have a credible candidate in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who is receiving the kind of national support that past nominees have not enjoyed.”

The report goes on to say that Pougnet remains a “heavy underdog” because of the GOP lawmaker’s moderate voting record. (She was one of eight Republicans to vote for Democrats’ “cap and trade” energy bill.)

Gay candidate a front-runner in House race

Where are Bush, Cheney as election nears?

Washington (CNN) — Dick Cheney is certainly not one to hold back on how he really feels. George W. Bush, on the other hand, has been mum.

Despite their differing approaches to handling the post-White House years, their absence on the campaign trail has been obvious.

“The former president has been very quiet since leaving the White House in 2008, other than appearances related to fundraising and the establishment of his presidential library,” said political analyst Bill Crane. “The vice president has primarily been visible on issues such as national defense and has traditionally not been the strongest fundraising draw.”

Cheney also has been dealing with health troubles — undergoing heart surgery in July and spending the bulk of his time since then recovering.

But that is not stopping him. The 69-year-old soon will embark on a 10-stop speaking tour this year, with additional plans next year when his memoirs are slated to come out.

While conservatives adore the former vice president, they understand that he is a polarizing figure, especially to independents, a vital voting bloc in any election.

“Conservatives would love to see Dick Cheney be more vocal,” said S.E. Cupp, a conservative blogger and co-author of the book “Why You’re Wrong about the Right.” “But at the same time, he’s not an idiot and neither are conservatives. He realizes that while that might energize the conservative base, that might not win over many independents who have a very bitter taste in their mouth from the Bush administration.”

And it shows in the polls.

A USA Today/Gallup Poll in early September found that 71 percent said Bush should get blame for the country’s economic troubles. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll taken at the same time indicated that 53 percent blamed Bush and Republicans for causing the current economic conditions, while 33 percent blamed President Obama and Democrats.

Those numbers may be why Tea Party-backed candidates such as Republican Sharron Angle and Ken Buck have made a name for themselves and are neck and neck in the polls against their Democratic opponents. They tout themselves as outside the Washington fray.

Washington insiders such as House Minority Leader John Boehner and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele are likely seen as a part of the problem to voters disenchanted with Washington.

“There’s a reason why so many of these conservative candidates are not going to John Boehner to help them to campaign,” Cupp said. “They kind of want to do it on their own to have at least an appearance of being grass-roots and unaffiliated.”

Democratic strategist Mark Siegel, who served under former President Carter, said Bush’s presence on the campaign trail would hurt the GOP candidates’ message that they would govern differently than the previous administration.

“Democrats have been saying over and over again that if you elect these new Republicans we’re just going to go back to the way things were,” he said.

Crane argues that Bush’s absence has more to do with respect.

“President Bush’s father took a similar approach during the Clinton years,” Crane said. “Having spent some time around the family … this is more about their respect for the office … as opposed to ‘fear’ by GOP challengers and incumbents about being connected with Bush, in my humble opinion.”

But Bush soon will appear from his so-called hiding when his book “Decision Points” is released on November 9. He is expected to give exclusive interviews and make appearances — after the November 2 election.

The ex-president has released a YouTube video previewing his upcoming book. In the video, Bush says he decided to take an “untraditional approach” to his memoir, forgoing an “exhaustive, chronological account of my life and years in office.”

CNN Political Ticker: Bush on ‘What I got right, what I got wrong’

Cupp said that Bush’s media blitz after the election is most likely due to his own political savvy.

“I don’t think he wants anyone to be able to say, ‘If Bush just hadn’t had said that or done that or gone there, maybe I could have won,’ ” she said. “It’s self-protection for one. I think he wants to stay out of the headlines for a bit.”

She added that this understanding of the political climate right now may be behind his decision to stay out of the spotlight.

And that is something Democrats have seized on.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden repeatedly have invoked Bush’s name on the campaign trail — talking points that more than likely originated from a poll this summer by the Benenson Strategy Group, the president’s chief polling firm, for Third Way, a moderate think tank.

Conducted June 19-22 of 1,100 likely voters, the poll found that Bush’s economic principles are “almost universally rejected” by a large margin — and merely bringing up the former president’s name causes a swing in attitudes.

When respondents were asked whether they would prefer a candidate who “will stick with President Barack Obama’s economic policies” or “one who will return to President George W. Bush’s economic policies,” the result was a 15-point advantage for the Obama approach.

Read more about Democrats’ Bush bashing

But a lot has changed since then.

According to CNN/Opinion Research poll in October, Americans are divided over whether Obama or Bush performed better in the White House.

By 47 percent to 45 percent, Americans say Obama is a better president than Bush. But that margin is down from a 23-point advantage a year ago.

“Democrats may want to think twice about bringing up former President George W. Bush’s name while campaigning this year,” said Keating Holland, CNN’s polling director.

Many moderate Democrats in hard-fought battles this year are shying away from being seen with the president — but are putting out the welcome mat for another one: Bill Clinton.

He has stumped in conservative areas for Blue Dog Democrats and is a real asset for Democrats across the board, Siegel said.

“Bill Clinton is not governing now. And when you think back to his presidency, at least economically, you think about a booming economy and surpluses, fiscally responsible,” he said. “I could see how he would be a tremendous plus. Bubba in the South — very, very popular culturally … popular among the people who are going to be determining the fate of a lot of Blue Dog Democrats.”

Where are Bush, Cheney as election nears?

Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst

Washington (CNN) — It has been said over and over again: The 2010 midterms is the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and by virtue of their position in power, the anti-Democratic election.

A sputtering economy, 9.6 percent national unemployment rate, housing crisis and little hope for a quick turnaround on the jobs front has forced Democrats on the defense heading into November.

OK, that is an understatement.

Democrats are under siege all across the country and are in deep danger of losing control of the House and if a massive wave develops on November 2, perhaps even the Senate.

Fueled by a huge fundraising effort by the Republican Governors Association, the GOP is also in position to reclaim more than a half dozen governorships including in states that President Obama easily won in 2008 such as Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Polls offers data that shows Democrats running for Senate seats in four key states are in dire straits and a president with little juice to help propel them to victory.

Video: Candidates go silent

Video: Can write-in win Senate seat?

Video: Strickland, Kasich on Ohio race

In all four of these states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio, Obama’s job approval rating ranges from a low of 33 percent (Arkansas) to a high of 42 percent (Ohio). The anti-Washington, thus anti-Democratic, theme shines like a bright neon sign in each of these races.

And the GOP’s rubber stamp argument seems to be resonating with voters, whether it is true or not: Sending, say, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln back to Washington means she will be a rubber stamp for Obama. Lincoln, who stuck to her centrist views and beat back a strong primary challenge from her political left earlier this year, is trailing her GOP opponent, Rep. John Boozman, by 14 points.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher is down 15 points to Republican Rob Portman. And in Florida, GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has a 26 point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three way race that also features Charlie Crist. Crist is running an independent bid for the Senate seat and trails Rubio by 14 points.

(The National Republican Senatorial Committee is also making the claim to West Virginia voters that the popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama if elected to the Senate).

But the Democrats running for governor in three of four of these states surveyed by CNN/Time/OPR shows that these candidates are either competitive or leading in their individual races. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe has a 27-point lead over his GOP rival Jim Keet; Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is up one point over Republican opponent John Kasich; and in the race for Florida governor, Democrat Alex Sink trails Republican Rick Scott by three points, which is within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

So, I think it is fair to say — outside of Alaska — that Democratic incumbents and candidates in these three states are not being stuck in the same category as their Democratic counterparts running for Senate. That is not to say the national mood is not having a negative affect on these Democrats, it just hasn’t been devastating.

As for the CNN/Time/OPR Poll, I dug a little deeper into the survey and found these interesting data points:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski obviously faces a difficult challenge in having her supporters correctly write-in her name on the ballot on November 2. The poll shows that Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller are tied at 37 percent, with Democratic nominee Scott McAdams registering support at 23 percent. But when respondents were asked if they might choose another candidate if they think the write-in procedure is too complicated, 3 percent answered yes. So, take that 3 percent away from Murkowski’s 37 percent and all of a sudden Miller is up three points. Murkowski is still within in the margin of error, but as CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted “in a tight race, this might be the difference between winning and losing.”

Murkowski’s greatest support comes from Anchorage and the Panhandle, while Miller wins Fairbanks and the Anchorage area when you expand it beyond the city limits.

Arkansas: How troubling is this for Democrat Blanche Lincoln? She is losing the woman vote to Republican John Boozman by eight points. She performs strongest in the east, while Boozman wins every other region of the state.

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is winning independents by four points over Charlie Crist, who is running an independent bid. Rubio’s lead is within the 6 percent margin of error. Rubio is also winning every corner of the state except southern Florida/Miami area where Crist holds a modest lead over the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In the governor’s race, Democrat Alex Sink is losing every region to Republican Rick Scott, but is crushing him in the southern Florida/Miami area. Sink, too, has soft support with women. She leads Scott by five points with women voters, but that is within the 5 percent margin of error for that specific question.

Ohio: In the Senate contest, Democrat Lee Fisher is losing to Republican Rob Portman among men and woman and in every age category. Geographically, Fisher leads Portman in the Cleveland area by eight points, but that is within the 8.5 percent margin of error. Portman is winning in every other part of the state. As for the competitive governor’s race, Ted Strickland is winning women, while John Kasich wins men. Strickland has a 15-point lead over Kasich with voters who earn less than $50,000, while Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with voters who earn more than $50,000. Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with independents. As for geographic regions, Strickland is leading in the Cleveland area and the central part of the state (the latter is within the margin of error), while Kasich is carrying Cincinnati/Dayton and has a slight lead in Columbus. In the industrial north, the two candidates are dead even.

Preston: Democrats prepare for the worst